March 6, 2024
TOP TAKEAWAYS
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- Voter Skepticism of Democrats: A large plurality, 40%, of voters—and higher shares of independents and non-college voters—believe Democrats have no clear strategy to oppose Trump, signaling an urgent need for a cohesive narrative.
- Clear Vulnerabilities for Trump: While Trump’s approval remains strong on immigration and border security, he is notably weak on healthcare (-10 net approval), inflation (-10), and corruption (-4), especially among key voter blocs.
- Elon Musk’s Declining Favorability: Between Blueprint’s last two polls—post-election to now—Elon Musk’s net favorability declined from -2 to -9 overall and from 0 to -14 among independents.
- Back to Basics Democrats: Voters are signaling a desire for Democrats to avoid overreach on Trump and ideological fights and focus on core economic issues that directly affect working people—like Medicaid cuts and ACA cuts. Similarly, messages highlighting Trump’s threats to entitlements and economic mismanagement significantly outperform broad democracy-related attacks.
OVERVIEW
The turbulent nature of Trump’s first weeks as president has presented a challenging landscape for Democrats, who find themselves in the wilderness after a lost election, and conflicted about their path forward and approach to the new administration.
Our polling reveals stark dividing lines in how voters perceive both the administration’s early actions as well as their perception of Democrats’ ability to respond. While Trump has maintained strong approval ratings on immigration and border security, he is politically vulnerable on his handling of inflation, tax cuts for the rich, and healthcare. Notably, the second-most resonant anti-Trump message highlights the chaos of his first few weeks. However, a large plurality of respondents—including significant portions of independents and non-college voters—say that Democrats have no clear strategy for opposing Trump.
Message testing reveals a preference for Democratic approaches that focus on bread-and-butter issues that help working people—specifically by protecting entitlements like Social Security and Medicare—in the face of attacks from Republican leaders and billionaire interests.
But voters see the Democratic Party as devoid of a coherent identity and too caught up in the wrong fights. And voters are split evenly when asked if they want Democrats to resist Trump and work to stop his agenda, work with Trump when he’s right but resist him when he’s wrong, or work to implement Trump’s agenda.
The key takeaway: Voters want Democrats to focus on the basics—economic security, protecting entitlements, and standing up for working people—while avoiding ideological overreach and foreign policy-focused confusion.
KEY FINDINGS
Mixed Reaction to Trump’s First Month
Respondents were asked to choose up to two issues they want to see the Democratic Party focus on moving forward.
Inflation and prices emerge as voters’ clear priority for Democratic focus (46%), particularly among swing voters (52%), followed by immigration (24%). Democracy (17%), abortion (17%), and healthcare (16%) form a second tier of priorities, mainly among base Democrats.
Trump’s early crackdowns on immigration and the border are overwhelmingly popular—but nearly equally as unpopular are his pardoning of January 6 rioters, his threats of tariffs, and his dismantling of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
“Reinstated the ‘Remain in Mexico’ policy” is selected by 72% of respondents as their most preferred Trump action thus far, representing a strong preference boost (+22) and highlighting immigration as an enduringly high-salience topic where Trump’s approach remains broadly popular.
Democrats in the Wilderness
Confusion about Democratic priorities remains a large barrier: 65% of voters agree that Democrats have lost their way in their opposition to Trump. Voters seek a party that returns to working-class basics and stands up for Social Security and Medicare, reproductive freedom, workers’ rights, and an economy that works for ordinary people.
The poll shows Democrats need a sharper definition of what they stand for and a back-to-basics economic message to recapture disaffected voters.
How to Counter Trump
Critiques of Trump on tangible measures—namely on his threats to Social Security and Medicare and rising food prices—outperform broad democracy-related attacks. A message about the chaos of Trump’s first month also performs well.
The most frequently selected anti-Trump message is “Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress are already considering cuts to Social Security and Medicare to pay for tax cuts for billionaires.” (56%), followed closely by messages highlighting the chaos and confusion thus far (55%) and Trump’s failures on food prices (53%).
A critique involving Elon Musk’s role in the administration performed relatively less well, but the delta between it and the better-performing messages is not wide, suggesting an opportunity to break through.
The Musk Problem
Elon Musk’s favorabilities continue to decline, particularly with independents.
Between Blueprint’s last two polls—post-election to now—Elon Musk’s net favorability declined from -2 to -9 overall and from 0 to -14 among independents.
The Big Issues: Voters Approve on Immigration, Frustrated on Inflation
While Trump maintains strong approval on immigration and border security, he has significant vulnerabilities on healthcare (-10 net approval), inflation (-10), and corruption (-4).
Healthcare and corruption are weak points, with disapproval notably high among women, non-college voters, and Black and Latino respondents.
Democrats can exploit Trump’s weaknesses by connecting economic hardship to his policies while recognizing immigration and border security as essential issues to address.
Do Democrats Have a Strategy For Trump? Voters Say “No”
Voters are deeply skeptical about the Democratic Party’s ability to respond effectively to Trump. A significant share perceives a lack of clear strategy, particularly among independents and non-college voters.
The perception of strategic incoherence is a major liability, and the poll signals a pressing need for Democrats to articulate a cohesive and credible anti-Trump approach. Messaging should emphasize a proactive agenda that addresses economic concerns while demonstrating practical leadership.
40% believe Democrats have no clear strategy to respond to Trump, particularly among independents and non-college voters. Only 10% believe Democrats have an effective resistance strategy, suggesting skepticism across the board.
The Resistance: Work with Trump or Oppose Him Outright?
There’s no consensus on how Democrats should approach Trump, indicating an opportunity to define a balanced strategy.
- 31% support working with Trump when he’s right but resist when he’s wrong, with particular preference among older voters. By party, 37% of independents prefer this approach, 29% of Democrats prefer this approach, and 28% of Republicans prefer it.
- 30% want Democrats to resist Trump and work to stop his agenda, a view reflected more strongly among college-educated and young voters. 25% of independents and 59% of Democrats prefer this approach.
- 30% think Democrats should work with Trump to implement his agenda, with the strongest support coming from male voters. 26% of independents and 60% of Republicans prefer this approach.
ABOUT THE POLL
This poll of 1,383 registered voters was conducted from Feb. 16 to Feb. 17. This survey was weighted to education, gender, race, survey engagement, and 2024 election results; it was conducted in English, and had a margin of error of ±3.51 percentage points.
Full toplines are available here; full crosstabs are available upon request.
PRESS CONTACTS
Alyssa Cass
alyssa@slingshotstrat.com
347-992-5006
Evan Roth Smith
evan@slingshotstrat.com
646-240-0096
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