October 15, 2024
KEY FINDINGS
- In media interviews, Harris can credibly and effectively distance herself from President Biden by picking a specific high-salience wedge issue and defining her clear policy priorities. Hypothetical quotes on expanding Medicare to cover at-home care (+10 percentage point effect) and going after high prices and greedy corporations (+7 percentage point effect) are highly popular answers to the question, “Would you have done something differently than President Biden during the past four years?”
- Harris’s response on “The View”—”not a thing comes to mind” when asked about what she might have done differently than Biden—has a -21 percentage point drag on preference toward her.
- But our ad testing shows that paid advertisements that distance Harris from Biden are not as effective. Democrats are better off playing the hits on popular policies in ads—showing that the electorate reacts to and rewards earned media moments and paid media differently.
As Democrats debate the delicate task of differentiating Vice President Harris from President Biden, our latest poll highlights this tension and identifies a comfortable home where Harris can effectively and confidently answer the question: Would you have done something differently than President Biden during the past four years?
By drawing a contrast with Biden on key policy issues—specifically on expanding Medicare for home healthcare and cracking down on corporate price-gouging—Harris earns a 10-percentage point gain (+10 with independents) and 7-percentage point (+15 with independents), respectively.
Harris’s answer of “not a thing comes to mind” when asked on “The View” what she would have done differently than Biden poses a significant drag on her favorability, particularly with independents.
While highlighting Harris’s policy distinctions resonates in interviews, our coinciding ad test shows that leaning too heavily on a narrative of distance from Biden does not perform as well in paid media. Voters still reward familiar Democratic policies in advertising, meaning Harris can balance a representation of change in earned media while still playing the hits in paid media.
“Victory for Harris is about threading the needle: defining herself as the change-maker without losing sight of popular Democratic positions,” said Evan Roth Smith, Blueprint’s lead pollster. “Harris can lead with proposals like Medicare expansion and taking on corporate greed, but our polling is clear—earned media moments allow for distinction from Biden, while ads should focus on playing Democratic hits that energize the base and persuade voters on policy.”
What Harris Can Say: “Would you have done something differently than President Biden during the past four years?”
In media interviews, Vice President Kamala Harris can credibly distance herself from the Biden administration on issues where she has already carved out a distinct policy lane—such as expanding Medicare to cover at-home care, lowering costs, and holding unethical corporations accountable for price gouging.
The poll tested hypothetical answers to the question: “Would you have done something differently than President Biden during the past four years?”
The answers picked issues where Vice President Harris can credibly distance herself from President Biden while defining a unique policy vision.
- Worst-testing message: “There is not a thing that comes to mind,” resulting in a -21 percentage point drag on favorability for Harris, and a -26 percentage point drag among independents.
- Best-testing message: Harris highlights her Medicare policy to cover at-home care, which produced a +10 percentage point increase in support (+10 with independents).
- Among independents, the most effective message centers on Harris expressing frustration with corporate price gouging and committing to crack down on predatory practices, earning a +7 percentage point lift overall (+15 among independents)
What Works In Earned Media Isn’t Rewarded In Paid Media
While Harris can effectively distance herself from Biden in interviews, the same approach doesn’t translate as well to paid media. Ad testing reveals that voters respond more to reinforcing core Democratic policies in ads than to messages focused on distancing from Biden. This suggests that an overemphasis on separation from Biden risks distracting from the most effective Democratic messages.
In short: Play the hits in advertising during this final stretch. The electorate rewards earned and paid media differently, and Harris should continue leveraging her unique vision for the country in interviews while reinforcing successful Democratic policies in paid media.
Blueprint partnered with VNCS to create and test four ads. Two focused on drawing clear distinctions between Harris and Biden on policy and biography, while two aligned Harris more closely with Biden, emphasizing a commitment to “finishing the job” of the past four years.
All the ads result in a meager +1 percentage point increase for Harris, with no difference depending on the message. Watch all four ads here.
For context, past ad tests from Blueprint have shown that sticking to Democratic winners—like protecting abortion, Social Security, and Medicare—and focusing on lower prices can have as much as 3.5 percentage point gains for Harris and 4.9 percentage points gains with independents.
ABOUT THE POLL
For the message test, Blueprint surveyed an online sample of 2,993 voters from October 10th to October 13th, weighted to education, gender, race, survey engagement, and 2020 election results. The survey was conducted in English, and its margin of error is ±2.0 percentage points.
For the ad test, Blueprint surveyed an online sample of 7,310 voters from October 9th to October 13th, with an oversample among swing state voters. Respondents were randomly exposed to no ad or a random one of the four VNCS ads.
Treatment effects were estimated through a regression model comparing control group respondents to treated respondents by ad, adjusting for pre-treatment covariates and estimated previous exposure to in-survey experiments.
The survey was conducted in English.
PRESS CONTACTS
Alyssa Cass
alyssa@slingshotstrat.com
347-992-5006
Evan Roth Smith
evan@slingshotstrat.com
646-240-0096
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