Midwestern Not Nice (to Elon Musk)

Since the inauguration of Donald Trump, Elon Musk has set out to transform American government and politics as the frontman of the new administration. But he may have accidentally transformed something he never intended to – the wavering fortunes of the Democratic Party.

April 9, 2024

Elon Musk assigned himself a starring role in last week’s Wisconsin Supreme Court race—and voters there didn’t appreciate his performance. A Blueprint flash poll (conducted April 2 and 3) of Wisconsinites who voted in the closely watched contest between Brad Schimel and Susan Crawford found significant disapproval of Musk and his interventions in the race. The poll also suggests that Musk’s endorsement of Schimel did little to increase support for him and may have pushed voters—particularly independents—toward Crawford.

TOP TAKEAWAYS

1. Wisconsin Supreme Court voters disapprove of how Musk is handling his role as head of DOGE. Net approval is -19 overall and -31 among independents, with 20% of Republicans disapproving.
2. Voters disapproved of Musk getting involved in the race, including his spending on it. Voter disapproval of Musk offering $1 million checks to voters at an event supporting Schimel was particularly high: 69% overall, including 71% of independents and 45% of Republicans.
3. A negligible share of voters say Musk’s endorsement of Schimel made them more likely to vote for him, but 33% of independents say it made them less likely to do so.
4. Few Schimel voters cited sending a message of support for Musk or Trump’s agenda as top reasons for their vote. But among Crawford voters, 22% say sending an anti-Musk message was a top reason for their vote, and 39% say the same of an anti-Trump message.

KEY FINDINGS

Musk Is Underwater with Wisconsin Supreme Court Voters

Wisconsin voters disapprove of Musk’s handling of his role as head of DOGE, with 38% approving and 57% disapproving (net -19). The share of voters who say they “strongly” disapprove of how Musk is handling the job (48%) is more than double the share who say they “strongly” approve (22%). Among independents, Musk’s net job approval is -30, with 31% approving (15% “strongly”) and 61% disapproving (51% “strongly”). Only 3% of Democrats approve, while 20% of Republicans disapprove.

By almost identical margins, voters disapprove of Trump giving Musk a role in his administration: 38% approve, while 58% disapprove (net -20). 34% of independents approve, while 59% approve (-26).

Checks and Imbalances: Wisconsin Supreme Court Voters Strongly Disapprove of Musk’s Role in the Race

93% of Wisconsin voters report hearing about Musk’s endorsement of Schimel.

Respondents sharply disapprove of Musk getting involved in the race. Net approval of Musk’s involvement is -35: 30% approve (only 15% “strongly”), while 65% disapprove (51% “strongly). Among independents, 26% approve (12% “strongly”), while 69% disapprove (55% “strongly”). And 32% of Republicans disapprove.

Voters similarly disapprove of Musk spending $20 million on the election 63% to 29% (-35), with only 22% of independents approving (12% “strongly”) and 70% disapproving (56% “strongly”). 28% of Republicans disapprove.

Voters were particularly negative on Musk offering $1 million checks to voters at an event supporting Schimel. 69% disapprove (58% “strongly”), while only 25% approve, putting net approval at -44. Net approval among independents is -51 (20% approve, 71% disapprove). And, notably, just 50% of Republicans approve of Musk’s stunt, with 45% disapproving.

Musk Endorsement May Have Backfired

Only 4% of independents say Musk’s endorsement of Schimel made them more likely to support him, while 33% say it made them less likely to (29% “much” less likely).

Republicans, meanwhile, were largely unmoved by Musk’s endorsement. 83% say it didn’t affect their vote, compared to 63% of independents and 48% of Democrats who say the same. 52% of Democrats say Musk’s endorsement made them less likely (48% “much” less likely) to support Schimel.

Similarly, 29% of independents say Musk’s opposition to Crawford made them more likely to support her (20% “much” more likely), while just 4% say it made them less likely to support her. Again, Republicans were mostly indifferent (79% say it did not affect their vote), while 53% of Democrats say it made them more likely (47% “much” more likely) to support her.

Of those who voted for Schimel, most (57%, including 54% of independents) say supporting the more conservative candidate was one of the most important factors in their vote. Just 14% of Schimel voters (8% of independents) say sending a message supporting Trump’s agenda was important, and only 5% (4% of independents) say the same about sending a message supporting Musk and DOGE.

Meanwhile, 22% of Crawford voters (including 26% of independents) say sending a message opposing Elon Musk and DOGE was one of the most important factors in their vote. 39% (40% of independents) say the same of sending a message opposing Trump’s agenda. The reason for voting for Crawford most commonly cited by her voters is supporting a pro-choice judicial nominee (47% overall; 43% of independents).

ABOUT THE POLL

This poll of 747 registered Wisconsin voters who reported voting in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election was fielded over web panels from April 2 to April 3. This survey was weighted to education, age, gender, race, and 2024 election results. The margin of error is +/- 4.1.

Full toplines are available here; full crosstabs are available upon request.

PRESS CONTACTS

Alyssa Cass
alyssa@slingshotstrat.com
347-992-5006

Evan Roth Smith
evan@slingshotstrat.com
646-240-0096