Positive Beats Negative: Harris Ads Should Leave Trump in the Dust

August 30, 2024

IF YOU READ JUST FOUR THINGS…

Contrast ads and ads with positive Harris messaging drastically outperform negative Trump ads by more than a 2:1 margin.
Among abortion-focused and healthcare-focused ads, the top three performing 30-second spots were an abortion contrast ad (+3.5 preference effect—moving a 50-50 horse race to 53.5% in favor of Harris), a positive spot that highlights Kamala Harris’s fight to expand healthcare access and lower costs (+3.4 preference effect), and a positive ad that focuses on Kamala Harris’s fight to protect reproductive freedom (+3.4 preference effect).
The lowest-performing 30-second ads we tested included one that connects Trump’s efforts to cut taxes for the rich to his plans to cut access to affordable healthcare (+1.3 preference effect) and another that highlights Trump’s attacks on the right to an abortion and his anti-choice agenda (+1.5 preference effect).
With independent voters, contrast ads and positive Harris ads can move the horse race by nearly 11 points in Harris’s favor. The best testing ads with this group are the contrast ad on healthcare (+10.7 preference effect), the Harris-focused abortion ad (+10.3 preference effect), and the contrast ad on abortion (+9.2 preference effect).

With tens of billions of dollars being spent on political advertising this election, Blueprint today released its first of many ad tests to break down what is moving voters the most and how a still new candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, can best win them over through paid media.

Blueprint developed message-tested scripts and top-of-the-line video ads with a leading creative firm, VNCS (Van Ness Creative Strategies), on the themes of reproductive freedom and healthcare access and affordability. For both issues, Blueprint tested positive Harris ads, negative Trump ads, and contrast ads.

Overwhelmingly, the findings show that the best-performing ads for Democratic PACs and the Harris campaign to use on the hot-button issues of healthcare affordability and abortion access are those that use positive messaging around Harris’s vision and background rather than those that attack Trump.

The results build on findings from a Blueprint poll earlier this month, which made the data-based case for positive messaging: voters are eager for a breath of fresh air in this race, and their perceptions of Donald Trump are mostly solidified. They want to learn more about Vice President Harris’s accomplishments, policy plans, and personal background.

The takeaway is clear: stay on offense and keep it positive. Voters still have a lot to learn about Vice President Harris and are looking for a hopeful vision of the future, not just more attacks on a well-known figure. For political practitioners and media buyers alike, the message is unmistakable—it’s time to double down on ads highlighting Harris’s unique story and vision for America.

FRESH AIR: POSITIVE HARRIS AND CONTRAST ADS TEST BEST

The ad that most strongly moves voter preference in Vice President Harris’s direction contrasts Harris’s commitment to restoring Roe v. Wade and protecting a woman’s right to make decisions about her own body with Trump’s belief that the government should tell women what to do and his plans to pass a national abortion ban and attack IVF and birth control next. The ad moves voter preference by 3.5 points toward Vice President Harris—drastically changing the horse race from 50-50 to 53.5-46.5.

With pure independents, those who do not lean to one party or the other, this ad moves the horse race 9.2 points in Vice President Harris’s direction.

NAME: Contrast Ad: Abortion and Reproductive Freedom

SCRIPT: We have a choice this election: Kamala Harris believes women have the right to make decisions about their own bodies, not the government. Donald Trump believes the government should tell women what to do or face imprisonment. Kamala Harris will fight to restore Roe v. Wade and save our fundamental rights. Donald Trump will allow his extremist allies to pass a national abortion ban – and attack IVF and birth control next. So do you want the freedom to choose for your family? Or not?

CREATIVE: VNCS

An ad that moves voters toward Vice President Harris by 3.4 points overall and 6 points with independents lays out a positive vision for her fight to provide affordable healthcare. The ad highlights Harris’s record prosecuting big corporations as California Attorney General, her efforts to lower prescription drug prices as Vice President, and her plans to expand Medicare and the Affordable Care Act as President.

Interestingly, the ad features an image of Harris standing side-by-side with President Obama, someone who also represented a breath of fresh air as a candidate in 2008 and whose popularity with Democrats remains high, in part because of his accomplishments on healthcare.

This ad and its high preference effect, in particular, provide an example of how remarkably effective ads and messaging can be without mentioning Trump at all.

NAME: Harris Positive Ad: Healthcare Access and Affordability

SCRIPT: Kamala Harris is fighting for an America with affordable, quality healthcare for all Americans. As an Attorney General, she protected patients from big companies breaking the law. And as Vice President, she helped fight price gouging from pharmaceutical companies by allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices. As President, she will fight to protect Medicare and expand the Affordable Care Act. Because no one should be denied health care for pre-existing conditions. Kamala Harris is fighting for hardworking, everyday Americans like you.

CREATIVE: VNCS

The other purely positive Harris ad, with zero mention of Trump, had the same 3.4-point preference effect. The abortion-focused ad emphasizes Vice President Harris’s plans to protect women’s fundamental freedoms and fight for families by stopping extreme abortion bans and attacks on birth control and IVF and her promise to pass a law restoring the protections of Roe v. Wade.

The ad tested second-best among pure independents, who shift 10.3 points toward Vice President Harris after seeing the video.

The ad illustrates the effectiveness of the freedom-focused messaging for Democrats and the strong preference for ads that inform voters about Vice President Harris without mentioning Trump, with whom they are very familiar.

NAME: Harris Positive Ad: Abortion and Reproductive Freedom

SCRIPT: Our most fundamental rights are under attack. But Kamala Harris will protect those rights. She believes in a woman’s right to make decisions about her own body without the government telling her what to do. She’s fighting to save reproductive freedom by stopping extreme abortion bans and attacks on birth control and IVF. As President, she’ll pass a national law restoring the protections of Roe v. Wade. Kamala Harris will secure the freedom of every family to choose what’s best for you and your future.

CREATIVE: VNCS

The ad that contrasts Vice President Harris and Donald Trump on the issue of healthcare affordability has a similarly high 3.3-point preference effect—far outperforming purely anti-Trump ads. It is the best-performing ad with pure independents, who move a whopping 10.7 points in favor of Vice President Harris after seeing it.

The ad initially highlights Vice President Harris’s fight to protect Medicare and expand affordable healthcare and Trump’s plans to cut Medicare for seniors and end affordable healthcare, namely by slashing taxes for the super-rich and making everyone else foot the bill.

A key to understanding its effectiveness: the ad points out how Vice President Harris helped pass a law to fight price gouging from pharmaceutical companies—providing voters with information about Harris’s positions that they might not be familiar with given their relative lack of association between her record and that of the Biden administration.

NAME: Contrast Ad: Healthcare Access and Affordability

SCRIPT: We have a choice in this election: Kamala Harris is fighting to protect Medicare and expand affordable healthcare. Donald Trump is fighting to cut Medicare for seniors and end affordable healthcare. As Vice President, Kamala Harris helped pass a law to fight price gouging from pharmaceutical companies. As President, Donald Trump cut taxes for the super rich and tried to make us pay for it by cutting our healthcare. The choice is simple: Do you want more affordable healthcare? Or less?

CREATIVE: VNCS

DUMP TRUMP: TRADITIONAL ANTI-TRUMP ADS DO NOT MOVE THE NEEDLE

Consistent with previous Blueprint findings about the lack of voter desire to hear more anti-Trump messaging vis-a-vis Vice President Harris, the worst-testing ads focus solely on Trump’s extreme plans to gut affordable healthcare and Medicare and further restrict a woman’s freedom to choose.

Whereas contrast ads and positive Harris ads have between a 3.3 and 3.5 point preference boost for Harris, anti-Trump ads only move the needle toward her by 1.3 and 1.5 points.

At 1.3 point preference effect overall and just 3.1 points with independents, the ad focusing on Trump’s plans to cut taxes for the super-rich by cutting healthcare for everyone else is the worst-performing ad Blueprint tested. The ad emphasizes how close Trump was to ending the Affordable Care Act as president and his intention now to finish the job.

NAME: Trump Negative Ad: Healthcare Access and Affordability

SCRIPT: Donald Trump is fighting for an America where we cut taxes for the rich by cutting healthcare for everyone else. As President, he gave the super-rich their biggest tax cut in history and was one vote away from ending the Affordable Care Act. Now, he wants to finish the job. So we can be denied healthcare again because of “pre-existing” conditions like having asthma or surviving cancer. Donald Trump is fighting for the super-rich—not for us.

CREATIVE: VNCS

Another anti-Trump spot, the second-worst-performing ad focuses on Donald Trump’s attacks on fundamental freedoms, including the right to abortion. The ad defines Trump as personally responsible for the overturning of Roe v. Wade and highlights his plans to go even further not only on abortion rights, but on IVF and birth control next. The ad moves overall voter preference by just 1.5 points toward Vice President Harris and 4.2 points with independents.

NAME: Trump Negative Ad: Abortion and Reproductive Freedom

SCRIPT: Our most fundamental rights are under attack. All because of one man: Donald Trump. He brags about being personally responsible for the overturning of Roe v. Wade and has said that women should be punished – even imprisoned – for seeking an abortion. Trump’s running mate has said there should be no exceptions for rape or incest. And their extreme agenda doesn’t stop there. They’re coming for IVF and birth control next. Donald Trump and his allies want to strip sacred freedoms from every American family.

CREATIVE: VNCS

ABOUT THE POLL

Blueprint surveyed an online sample of 13,215 voters from August 21 to August 23. Respondents were randomly exposed to no ad or a random one of the six VNCS ads.

Treatment effects were estimated through a regression model comparing control group respondents to treated respondents by ad, adjusting for pre-treatment covariates and estimated previous exposure to in-survey experiments.

The survey was conducted in English.

The full folder of ads, created and produced by VNCS, can be accessed here.

ABOUT VNCS (Van Ness Creative Strategies)

VNCS is a digital agency and full-service creative studio focused on electing Democrats.

PRESS CONTACTS

Alyssa Cass
alyssa@slingshotstrat.com
347-992-5006

Evan Roth Smith
evan@slingshotstrat.com
646-240-0096