Debate Snap Poll & Message Test: Harris Gains with Independents and Key Voter Groups

With 45% of voters now more likely to support Kamala Harris, including 37% of independents, the Vice President’s debate performance has cemented her as a formidable candidate heading into the final months of the campaign. On the other hand, just 31% of voters say the debate makes them more likely to support Donald Trump.

September 11, 2024

THE BIG TAKEAWAYS:

45% of voters who watched the debate are now more likely to support Kamala Harris after the debate, with 39% much more likely. Only 31% say they are more likely to support Trump. Among independents, 37% are more likely to back Harris compared to 26% for Trump.
56% of debate viewers believe Kamala Harris won, including 50% of independents. Just 28% of independents think Trump won, a significant win for team Harris.
Harris’s positive messaging outshines anti-Trump attacks, with messages focused on values, healthcare, freedom, and unity performing especially well with independents and persuadable voters.
Harris’s contrasts with Trump that resonate are those that are the least anti-Trump and rather pivot to Kamala Harris’s unique vision and plan for America—highlighting the desire for voters to learn more about her.

DEBATE REACTION CHEAT SHEET

In a highly anticipated debate against Donald Trump, Vice President Kamala Harris strengthened her position among both the overall electorate and independent voters in front of a significantly large portion of the electorate who watched. A Blueprint flash poll conducted following the debate found:

Harris wins: Among those who watched the debate, 56% believe Harris won, compared to 31% who think Donald Trump emerged with the upper hand. 13% remained undecided. With independents, 50% believe she won the debate, compared to just 28% for Trump.

Change candidate: While 47% of voters still see a Harris administration as a continuation of the Biden presidency, Harris’s positive messaging is particularly effective in message testing and signals an opening for Harris to define herself as a change candidate in the race.

What stuck?: Quotes that emphasized her leadership, values, and concrete plans and accomplishments outperformed direct attacks on Trump, especially among independents. Voters responded strongly to Harris’ focus on healthcare affordability, her vision for progress, and her focus on freedom, underscoring the effectiveness of her forward-looking narrative.

What’s next?: With 45% of voters now more likely to support Kamala Harris, including 37% of independents, the Vice President’s debate performance has cemented her as a formidable candidate heading into the final months of the campaign. On the other hand, just 31% of voters say the debate makes them more likely to support Donald Trump.

WHO EVEN WATCHED? AND WHO DO THEY THINK WON?

Of those who watched the debate, 56% of respondents believe Kamala Harris won, while 31% think Donald Trump won, and 13% are unsure. 50% of independents who watched think Kamala Harris won the debate, 28% of independents think Trump won, and 23% of independents are still unsure.

Online victory: Among age groups, the youngest cohort of voters (ages 18-44) most think Kamala Harris won the debate, with 60% saying such. Just 28% of younger voters who watched think Trump won. Unsurprisingly, 70% of young voters have already seen clips of the debate. In total, 67% of voters watched clips of the debate.

Who Trump won: Non-college voters who watched were most likely to say Trump won the debate, but still only 37% of them said so. 52% of non-college voters who watched the debate think Kamala Harris won.

Presidential Image & Coherence: When it comes to overall presidential demeanor, 56% of viewers feel Harris appeared more presidential, a view echoed by key demographics, including 86% of Black voters, 65% of Latino voters, and 61% of younger voters (ages 18-44). Harris also holds a commanding lead in perceived coherence, with 56% of respondents deeming her the more coherent candidate compared to 37% who say Trump was more coherent.

CHANGE CANDIDATE? BIDEN STILL LOOMS LARGE

Breaking Biden: 47% of respondents believe a Kamala Harris administration would be a continuation of the Biden administration, while 41% think it would be different. 12% are unsure.

72% of Democrats believe Harris would be different from Biden, compared to just 34% of independents and only 11% of Republicans. 50% of independents think a Kamala Harris administration will be a continuation of the Biden administration.
Younger voters are most split, with 42% of those ages 18 to 44 believing Harris would be a continuation of Biden and 43% saying her administration would be different.
58% of Black voters think Harris will bring change from Biden compared to 29% who predict continuity.

HOW DOES THE DEBATE IMPACT SUPPORT?

After the debate, 45% of voters are more likely to support Kamala Harris, including 39% who are much more likely. 31% of voters are more likely to support Donald Trump, including 27% who are much more likely. 24% of voters say the debate made no difference.

Winning the middle: Among independents 37% say they are more likely to support Kamala Harris and 26% say they are more likely to support Donald Trump after the debate. 36% of independents say the debate made no impact.
Boost with non-white voters: 63% of Black voters and 47% of Latino voters are “much more likely” to support Harris following the debate.

WHAT STUCK? HARRIS’S POSITIVE PLEAS AND ATTACKS ON TRUMP

In a MaxDiff analysis conducted after the debate, the preference for positive Harris quotes and moments where Harris went after Trump were tested separately with voters—where two quotes were put next to each other and voters had to pick the one they preferred. An index of the full list of quotes tested can be found at the bottom of the release.

Keep it positive: Kamala Harris’s positive messages that focused on her values, leadership vision, commitment to unity and freedom, and accomplishments perform well across the board, including with independents.

The Trump Pivot: For the quotes where Kamala Harris contrasted herself from Trump, the strongest messages are those that minimized direct attacks on Trump and instead pivoted to Harris’ unique vision for the future. Voters responded better when Harris framed the contrast in terms of her positive, forward-looking agenda rather than simply attacking Trump’s record or personality.

Harris sticking points: Messages that highlight Harris’ leadership and her commitment to serving everyday Americans are also particularly effective, especially as it comes to healthcare affordability and lowering prices.

“I am not Joe Biden”: Notably, Harris’s “I am not Joe Biden,” remark tests the best with overall voters—suggesting an effective moment where she distanced herself from the past and gained an upper hand on being perceived as a change candidate.

ABOUT THE POLL

Blueprint surveyed an online sample of 1,489 voters on September 11, weighted to education, gender, race, survey engagement, and 2020 election results. The survey was conducted in English, and its margin of error is ±2.9 percentage points.

Full toplines and crosstabs can be found here.

INDEX – HARRIS MESSAGES, FULL MAXDIFF RESULTS

Which of these quotes from Kamala Harris provides the strongest reason to vote for Kamala Harris? Even if none of them do, which provides the strongest reason of the two?

Which of these quotes from Kamala Harris provides the strongest reason to vote against Donald Trump? Even if none of them do, which provides the strongest reason of the two?

PRESS CONTACTS

Alyssa Cass
alyssa@slingshotstrat.com
347-992-5006

Evan Roth Smith
evan@slingshotstrat.com
646-240-0096