Majority of Voters Want U.S. to Focus on Peace, Not Escalation, in Middle East

October 24, 2024

As the presidential race enters its final stretch, there are very few things that could meaningfully move the views of the electorate in just 12 remaining days. But the potential for an “October Surprise” in the Middle East looms large. An Israeli strike on Iran or a breakthrough in peace negotiations could fundamentally reshape the election’s trajectory. In an effort to stay ahead of such events, Blueprint’s latest poll examines how American voters feel about the ongoing conflict, U.S. foreign policy, and how Kamala Harris can best align her messaging with the electorate’s concerns about the Middle East.

The findings paint a complex picture of public opinion, which has sharp partisan divides but clear opportunities for messaging focused on peace and de-escalation.

In short, the electorate is relatively sympathetic towards Israel (but, importantly, not toward Netanyahu), forcefully opposed to escalation of the conflict, determined to avoid further American involvement in the Middle East, and overwhelmingly prefers a peace agreement that brings the current round of fighting to a close.

This complex situation has a clear partisan dimension. While a majority of Republicans support Israel’s military response and advocate for strong U.S. backing of Israel, Democrats and independents express greater support for U.S. neutrality and a de-escalation of the conflict.

When it comes to how Harris could speak to a sudden change in circumstances in the Middle East, the poll shows a strong preference for messaging that is focused on achieving a short-term peace while limiting American entanglement or involvement in escalation, and staying focused on our goals of bringing the fighting to a close, freeing the hostages, and preventing a broader regional war.

Mixed Views on Israel, Its Actions

While Israel has strong net favorability among all voters (+29), the partisan divide is stark. Republicans are overwhelmingly favorable toward Israel (+60), while Democrats’ views are more mixed (+10).

All voters: 56% favorable, 27% unfavorable (Net +29)
Democrats: 45% favorable, 35% unfavorable (Net +10)
Independents: 45% favorable, 31% unfavorable (Net +14)
Republicans: 75% favorable, 15% unfavorable (Net +60)

Notably, Benjamin Netanyahu is viewed 31 net points less favorably than Israel itself, driven by dislike among a plurality of Democrats (-32 net favorability).

Desire for Limited U.S. Role and Ceasefire

A significant number of voters prefer that the U.S. remain neutral in the Israel-Iran conflict, with strong support for brokering a ceasefire.

37% of all voters— including 47% of Democrats and 41% of independents—prefer the U.S. to remain neutral and broker a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. This is a sharp contrast to the 45% of Republicans who want the U.S. to support Israel “no matter what.”

24% of voters support the U.S. backing Israel against Iran “no matter what,” with stark partisan differences (45% of Republicans vs. 16% of independents vs. 10% of Democrats), while another 25% of voters want to “support Israel, but with limits.”

Best Harris Messaging Focuses on Peace, American Interests

32% of voters think Kamala Harris is offering the “right amount” of support for Israel, 30% believe she is not offering enough, and 10% believe she is offering too much.
32% of voters think Donald Trump is offering the “right amount” of support for Israel. 18% believe he is not offering enough support, while 14% believe he is showing too much support.
30% of voters think President Biden is offering the “right amount” of support for Israel. 30% believe he is not offering enough support, while 18% believe he is showing too much support.

The best Harris messaging on the Middle East presents Harris as a pragmatic peacemaker who advocates for stability in the region and diplomacy while avoiding unnecessary U.S. entanglement.

(+8 Harris preference effect) “America can only make peace if the leaders in the Middle East want it. Right now, you have factions in Israel, terrorist organizations, and the leaders of Iran who are determined to continue fighting. As President, I will work for peace, but I will not allow America to be drawn into a regional conflict with no end in sight, because no one in the region wants to end it. We will focus on protecting innocent lives and keeping Americans out of danger, but we cannot solve the conflict in the Middle East alone.”

The best Harris messaging on America’s relationship with Israel positions Harris as a leader who values the U.S.-Israel alliance—but is willing to apply pressure when necessary to achieve broader peace and security goals.

(+8 Harris preference effect) “I believe we need to do more to bring the conflict in the Middle East to a close, and that includes being clear with Israel on America’s goals of ending the fighting in Gaza, securing the return of hostages, dignity for Palestinians, and ensuring Israel’s security when it comes to Iran and its proxies. Netanyahu says he shares those goals, but the war has gone on too long and with too little to show for it. I will be forceful and direct in my pursuit of an end to the fighting on terms that are favorable to the United States, to our ally Israel, and to the innocent people caught in the crossfire.”

On the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, a compelling message for Harris is one that emphasizes strong support for Israel’s defense while addressing concerns about Iranian aggression. It resonates across key Democratic and independent voter groups and signals firm U.S. foreign policy leadership.

(+2 Harris preference effect) “Iran’s ongoing attacks on Israel must end, and Iran bears the responsibility for supporting terrorist organizations and conducting military attacks that have killed innocent civilians all across the Middle East. Israel and America will work together to determine the best way to put a stop to Iran’s warmongering, and to prevent it from gaining access to nuclear weapons. If that takes direct strikes on targets in Iran, then we will support our Israeli allies in conducting those strikes, just as we helped them defend against Iranian attacks.”

Support for Potential Israeli Actions Against Iran

Iran remains disliked across all groups, with 75% of voters expressing unfavorable views and little partisan differentiation.

While 56% of voters support an Israeli response to Iranian attacks, there is a clear partisan divide on the matter. 74% of Republicans support an Israeli response to Iran’s attacks, and only 47% of Democrats and 45% of independents share that view. Partisan polarization also affects preference for America backing Israel against Iran “no matter what,” compared to pursuing a ceasefire between the two countries.

Support for Israel’s Response to Potential Iranian Attacks

All voters: 56% support, 21% oppose (Net +35)
Democrats: 47% support, 27% oppose (Net +20)
Independents: 45% support, 27% oppose (Net +18)
Republicans: 74% support, 9% oppose (Net +65)

The poll dug into the types of Israeli responses against Iran U.S. voters would support. Voters are cautious about Israel’s potential military responses to Iranian provocations, as many favor more limited actions.

The action with the highest preference is targeting “Iranian-supported groups, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis” at 38%. The action with the lowest voter preference is targeting “Iranian population centers and major cities” at 5%. This shows overwhelming opposition to actions that would directly harm Iranian civilians.

A notably high share of respondents (31%) say they “Don’t know” which of these potential actions they support. Additionally, there is a low preference (17%) for the option that Israel shouldn’t launch any attacks. There is limited support for Israel bombing Iranian oil and gas facilities, ports, and nuclear facilities.

Furthermore, when respondents are informed that Israel is considering taking such action and given a binary choice, 45% agree with the option, “Bombing Iranian oil and nuclear facilities will only intensify an already brutal conflict. Israel should not do it,” and just 27% agree with the option “Bombing Iranian oil and nuclear facilities will finally stop the Iranian regime’s ambitions. Israel should do it.”

ABOUT THE POLL

Blueprint surveyed 1,004 registered voters nationally. It was conducted from Oct. 14 to Oct. 15.

This survey was weighted to education, gender, race, survey engagement, and 2020 election results; it was conducted in English, and had a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points.

Full toplines are available here; full crosstabs are available upon request.

PRESS CONTACTS

Alyssa Cass
alyssa@slingshotstrat.com
347-992-5006

Evan Roth Smith
evan@slingshotstrat.com
646-240-0096