Haley Voters in Focus: Cross-Pressured, Frustrated, Up for Grabs

“Nikki Haley voters are up for grabs for Kamala Harris” said Blueprint lead pollster Evan Roth Smith. “They’re fed up with Trump’s chaos but skeptical of Kamala Harris’s policies, presenting an opportunity for the Harris campaign to close that gap. The bottom line: these voters are a home-run opportunity this October, but only if the right pitch is made.”

October 9, 2024

KEY FINDINGS: NIKKI HALEY VOTERS

Haley voters are concerned that Trump’s character is erratic (57% say this describes their concerns about Trump “very well”) and think Harris is more competent than the alternative (39%).
The traits that Haley voters most associate with Trump are being too old to lead (net +46), too selfish to lead (+33), has the experience to make tough decisions (+19), is a strong leader (net +14), and is too extreme (+4).
The traits Haley voters most associate with Harris are being young enough (net +44), having compassion (+23), having integrity (+21), representing more of the same (+21), caring what people who disagree with them think (+19) and has the character it takes to be President (+14).
For Haley voters, the most persuasive critique of the Republican Party is that it “opposes abortion too much” (42% say this describes the Republican Party “very well”).
Haley voters are not diehard Cheney-heads, with Liz Cheney’s favorability underwater with Haley Republicans (-9) and independents (-5). Dick Cheney fares better with Haley Republicans (+8) than independents (-11). They’re more fond of other aughts-era neocons such as George W. Bush, Condoleezza Rice, and John McCain.

In the final innings before Election Day, it’s clear that the race will come down to the final pitch—so Blueprint took a look at where Vice President Harris can pick up the potentially difference-making votes of Nikki Haley supporters.

Our latest poll delves deep into the priorities and values of Haley voters—meaning Republicans, Republican-leaning independents, or true independents who voted for Nikki Haley in the Republican primary. The sample also includes Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who preferred Haley as the Republican nominee.

Haley voters are a group in flux, emerging as one of the most pivotal and unpredictable groups in this election. At the heart of this volatility is a significant erosion of Trump’s support. In 2020, 59% of Haley voters (64% of Haley Republicans; 48% of Haley independents) voted for Trump, but only 45% (49% of Haley Republicans; 38% of Haley independents) plan to do so again in 2024.

This shift represents a crucial opportunity for Democrats, particularly Kamala Harris, to make inroads with this group. However, the path forward is complex: Haley voters harbor deep concerns about Harris’s policies, viewing them as too extreme—yet they view her competence and character more favorably than Trump’s erratic leadership style.

How Haley Voters View Trump and Harris

Trump’s dominance within the GOP has not gone unchallenged, with Haley voters presenting the latest thorn in his side. While Trump retains some loyalty from these voters, a significant number express concerns over his leadership and character.

Haley Republicans have negative views of both Trump (-40) and Harris (-35). Compared to Haley Republicans, Haley independents view Trump less favorably and Harris more favorably, but still hold deeply negative views of both (-57 Trump, -28 Harris).

Fifty-seven percent of Haley voters correctly identify that Haley has endorsed Trump, 13% believe she endorsed Harris, and the rest are unsure or believe she has not endorsed.
More Haley voters are concerned that Trump’s character is too erratic (57% say this describes their concerns about Trump “very well”) than are concerned that his policies are too extreme (38%).
For Harris, the problem is flipped; 50% of Haley voters are concerned that her policies are too extreme, while 38% say the same about her character being too erratic.
When offered a binary choice on what they like and dislike about the candidates, Haley voters say the thing they like about Harris is that she is more competent than the alternative (39%) and the thing they dislike about her is that policies don’t align with their views (51%).
On Trump, there is a more even split, with 32% of Haley voters saying the thing they dislike about him is that he’s less competent than the alternative, while 31% like that his policies align with their views.

Haley Voters still trust Trump more than Harris on top-of-mind issues like immigration (net +38), inflation (+24), the economy (+23), and national security (+22). However, Harris leads Trump on issues like climate change (net +24), education (+24), and abortion (+29).

The traits that the highest shares of Haley voters associate with Trump are being too old to lead (net +46), too selfish to lead (+33), has the experience to make tough decisions (+19), is a strong leader (+14), and is too extreme (+4).

The traits the most Haley voters associate with Harris are being young enough (net +44), having compassion (+23), having integrity (+21), represents more of the same (+22), cares what people who disagree with them think (+19), and has the character it takes to be President (net +14).

Haley Voter Issue Priorities: Economic Issues First, Then National Security and Immigration

When asked about their issue priorities, Haley voters overwhelmingly rank inflation, Social Security, and the economy at the top. National security and immigration also emerge as key issues, with Haley voters identifying them as a top priority 20 percentage points and 19 percentage points more often than the average issue, respectively. Haley voters’ least-prioritized issues are cryptocurrency, transgender issues, climate change, the war in Ukraine, and China and Taiwan.

Harris’s Opportunity to Make Headway with Haley Voters

Haley voters are deeply cross-pressured; while a majority of both Haley Republicans and Haley independents currently do not plan to vote for Trump, he is still the preferred candidate among a plurality of Haley Republicans and is leading by one point with Haley independents. Harris has room to make real progress in winning over these voters.

Trump support among Haley voters has declined significantly since 2016. Only 49% of Republican Haley voters plan to vote for Trump in 2024, while 64% voted for him in 2020 and 72% voted for him in 2016. Among independent Haley voters, only 38% are planning to vote for Trump, compared to 48% who voted for him in 2020 and 53% in 2016.
The majority of Haley voters are open to voting for Democratic candidates. 18% of Republican Haley voters say they usually vote for “all Republicans,” and another 48% say “mostly Republicans”; only 4% of independent Haley voters say “all Republicans,” while 31% say “mostly Republicans.”
A larger portion of Haley Republicans and independents fondly remember Obama (-23 favorability) and Romney (+11 independents, +29 Republican). They don’t particularly like Bill Clinton (-23 independent, -41 Republican). Haley voters have very favorable opinions of George W. Bush (+60 independents, +70 Republicans), Condoleezza Rice (+53 independents, +55 Republicans), John McCain (+46 independents, +52 Republicans), and Arnold Schwarzenegger (+37 independents, +34 Republicans).
Haley Republicans (-9) and independents (-5) have negative feelings towards Liz Cheney, though she performs better than Harris and Trump. Dick Cheney fares better with Haley Republicans (+8) than independents (-11).

Haley Voters’ Top Criticisms of Both Parties and Perceptions of Party Extremes

Haley voters remain divided over which party is more extreme. Among Haley independents, 49% say both parties have become equally more extreme, 23% say Democrats have become more extreme, and 25% say Republicans have become more extreme. Among Haley Republicans, 42% say both parties have become more extreme, 28% say Democrats more and 27% say Republicans more.
Haley voters are also closely divided on which party is more accepting of swing voters. Among Haley independents, 31% say both parties are equally accepting, 33% say Democrats are more accepting, and 27% say Republicans are more accepting. Among Haley Republicans, 32% say parties are about the same, 28% say Democrats are more accepting of swing voters, and 33% say Republicans are.
53% of Haley voters say that Trump’s ideas are “extreme and dangerous,” while 37% say the same about the ideas of the Republican Party broadly. 48% of Haley voters say Harris’s ideas are “extreme and dangerous,” compared to 42% for Joe Biden and 47% for Democrats.

To Haley voters, the most persuasive critiques of the Democratic Party are that it has moved too far to the left (55% describes “very well”), is only concerned about wokeness and DEI (53%), is too focused on helping immigrants over citizens (53%), and is too soft on crime (48%). The criticisms that resonate with the fewest Haley voters are “too aligned with big tech” (19%), opposes free trade too much (22%), and hates America and patriotism (22%).

The most persuasive critiques of the Republican Party for Haley voters are “opposes abortion too much,” (42% describes the Republican Party “very well”), pushes policies that benefit the rich and corporations (33%), is too stuck in the past (27%) and wants to cut programs like Social Security (27%). The least persuasive are “supports unions too much” (8%), wants to let China control Taiwan (12%), opposes free trade too much (14%) and opposes individual liberty (17%).

Ideology: Where Haley Voters Place Themselves and the Candidates

The ideological composition of Haley voters reflects a broad conservative base but—importantly—includes a significant moderate faction. Thirteen percent of Haley voters (7% of independents, 16% of Republicans) identify as “very conservative,” 46% as “somewhat conservative” (37% independents; 51% Republicans), and 37% as moderate (50% independents; 30% Republicans).

A large majority of Haley voters see Harris as more liberal than they are (59% “much more” liberal, 19% “somewhat more” liberal). A smaller majority see Trump as more conservative than they are, though fewer see him as very far from their views than do Harris (34% say Trump is “much more” conservative than they are, 23% “somewhat more” conservative). Harris is seen as slightly more liberal than Biden, who 56% of Haley voters say is “much more” liberal than they are.

Only 18% of Haley voters see Trump as “similar to my views”; 13% say the same for Harris.

Haley voters see Nikki Haley herself as roughly in line with their views (57% “similar to me”), though more see her as conservative (23% “somewhat more,” 3% “much more”) than liberal (5% “somewhat more,” 1% “much more”).

ABOUT THE POLL

Blueprint surveyed 781 Haley voters, defined as Republicans, Republican-leaning independents or true independents who selected Nikki Haley in the primary.

Our sample also includes Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who said they preferred Haley as the Republican nominee.

We did not include any Democratic-identifying voters or Democratic-leaning independents in our sample.

Full toplines can be accessed here.

PRESS CONTACTS

Alyssa Cass
alyssa@slingshotstrat.com
347-992-5006

Evan Roth Smith
evan@slingshotstrat.com
646-240-0096