Haley Voters Part 2: Harris’s Advantage on Prices Puts These Voters Within Reach

Haley voters are most responsive to policies and promises focused on economic pragmatism, cost-of-living issues, and programs like Social Security and Medicare. They prioritize stability, competence, and practical solutions—traits they believe Trump can no longer provide.

October 10, 2024

TOP TAKEAWAYS

For Haley voters, 76% say an improved economy means lower prices—and they see Harris as most focused on the issue. 46% think Harris is most focused on lower prices than higher wages, more jobs, or lower interest rates. 34% think Trump is most focused on lower prices, and just 18% think Joe Biden is most focused on lower prices—putting the Democratic nominee in much better standing than where Biden was on the highly-salient issue.
Against conventional wisdom, these Republican and independent voters support proposed government interventions to reduce prices. 70% of Haley voters support passing a law banning companies from charging excessive prices on groceries and authorizing the FTC to impose fines on companies that do, and just 19% oppose (net +61).
The most effective messages and campaign promises to boost support for Harris affirm her plans to protect Social Security and Medicare. A campaign promise to protect Social Security earns a 30-point boost for Harris with Haley voters and the top testing message in the poll, earning a 21-point boost, related to Harris’s plans to protect the programs as opposed to Trump’s intentions to gut them in favor or tax cuts for the rich.
Haley voters are less receptive to attacks on Trump’s foreign policy and record on the deficit. The worst-testing messages related to Harris’s support for Ukraine as opposed to Trump’s coziness with Putin and, while they want deficit reduction, one that highlights Trump’s ballooning of the deficit. Similarly, Harris’s support for Ukraine and, separately, Israel were among the least effective policy promises for convincing Haley voters.

Haley voters—cross-pressured, disillusioned with both major parties, and highly pragmatic—represent one of the most important voter blocs for Vice President Harris to target in the campaign’s final weeks.

In part one of our Haley voter analysis, we identified the potential for Harris to make inroads with these voters by addressing their deep frustrations with Trump’s erratic leadership, mitigating their perceptions of the Democratic Party going too far left, and leaning on the popularity of aughts-era neocons à la Liz Cheney. Again, Blueprint’s sample includes: leaning Republicans, Republican-leaning independents, or true independents who voted for Nikki Haley in the Republican primary, as well as Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who preferred Haley as the Republican nominee.

Part two digs deeper into their evolving perceptions and shows what messages, policies, and promises will make them swoon. Haley voters are most responsive to policies and promises focused on economic pragmatism, cost-of-living issues, and programs like Social Security and Medicare. They prioritize stability, competence, and practical solutions—traits they believe Trump can no longer provide.

Prices: Harris Turns a Losing Issue for Joe Biden Into a Winner

A key win for Harris: her laser focus on lowering prices in campaign messaging.

When asked what they would most like to see improved in the economy, 76% say lower prices on goods, gas, and services as opposed to 8% who say each of more jobs, higher wages, and lower interest rates.
46% of Haley voters say Harris is most focused on lower prices. 23% say higher wages, 20% say more jobs, and 10% say lower interest rates.
A lower share than Harris, 34% of Haley voters think Trump is most focused on lower prices. 31% say more jobs, 19% say lower interest rates and 15% say higher wages.
Just 18% of Haley voters think Joe Biden is most focused on lower prices. 38% say he is most focused on more jobs, 28% say higher wages, and 16% say lower interest rates.

Overall, and understandably for this group of Republican-oriented voters, 41% of Haley voters say they would prefer to see Kamala Harris reverse the Biden administration’s approach to policy entirely, and 37% would prefer her to develop a new approach that builds on the Biden administration’s approach to policy. 6% prefer a continuation of the Biden administration’s approach to policy.

Policy Preferences of Haley Voters

While Haley voters remain wary of Harris’s broad agenda, specific policies—like cracking down on fentanyl traffickers and lowering the cost of prescription drugs—have gained significant traction with this group.

Aside from the best testing policies, government interventions on prices are overwhelmingly popular with Haley voters. For instance, 70% of Haley voters support passing a law banning companies from charging excessive prices on groceries and authorizing the FTC to impose fines on companies that do, and just 19% oppose (net +61).

Best-Testing Policies: Increasing prosecution of drug traffickers at the border (net +89), increasing sentences for fentanyl (net +89), reducing prescription drug costs for seniors (net +85) and $3 trillion in deficit reduction (net +79).

Worst-Testing Policies: Passing the policy agenda of Project 2025 (net -49), a ban on fracking (net -44), a new tax on unrealized capital gains (net -42), and limiting weapons sales to Israel (net -16).

Top Campaign Promises for Haley Voters

Certain campaign promises from Harris have the potential to boost her standing among Haley voters significantly. Policies that focus on lowering prices and protecting Social Security and Medicare are most persuasive, while promises related to foreign policy fare less well.

Most Effective Promises: The commitment to protect Social Security stands out as the most popular promise among Haley voters, providing a +30 percentage point lift in support. Other effective promises include cutting taxes for the middle class (+13 point lift) and lowering prices on goods and services (+11 point lift).

Least Effective Promises: Promises to include a Republican in her cabinet (-21 point lift) and to support Ukraine (-18 point lift) are far less effective. Additionally, Haley voters do not see Harris’s support for Israel as a compelling reason to back her (-16 point lift).

Best Messages to Reach Haley Voters

The key to winning over Haley voters lies in targeted messaging that speaks to their concerns about economic security and healthcare. Harris should highlight her competence and toughness on core issues while downplaying ideologically divisive topics.

The message test shows that Harris can emphasize her strengths on Social Security, healthcare, and bipartisan endorsements while avoiding attacks on Trump’s fiscal record, which only galvanize voter resistance.

Best Messages:

Harris will Protect Social Security and Medicare. Harris knows that seniors everywhere rely on these programs to get buy. Trump, on the other hand, tried to cut Medicare in his budget to pay for tax cuts for the rich. (+21 point lift)

Harris will defend healthcare coverage for those with preexisting conditions. She understands that health care access is fundamental for the middle class. When Donald Trump was president, he tried to eliminate protections for preexisting conditions. (+16 point lift)

Harris has been endorsed by Republican Nikki Haley’s Iowa State Chair. She has been endorsed by former Regan, Bush staffers and even members of Trump’s own cabinet. Meanwhile, Trump’s own former Vice President won’t even endorse him. Harris is the bipartisan choice. (+11 point lift)

Worst Messages:

Trump raised the deficit by over $8 trillion during his first term. Nonpartisan analysts have said his proposals would raise the deficit by over $5 trillion if he gets elected again, and economists say he would be 5 times worse on this issue than Harris. He is not fiscally responsible. (-10 point lift)
Kamala Harris was a tough prosecutor that put away violent criminals and sex offenders. The murder rate went way up under Trump. Violent crime reached a 50-year low under Harris’s administration. (-11 point lift)
Harris has vowed to stand up to Putin, while Trump will let him do whatever he wants. Trump sent 350 high-technology missiles to Ukraine. Harris has sent over 10,000. (-12 point lift).

ABOUT THE POLL

Blueprint surveyed 781 Haley voters, defined as Republicans, Republican-leaning independents or true independents who selected Nikki Haley in the primary.

Our sample also includes Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who said they preferred Haley as the Republican nominee.

We did not include any Democratic-identifying voters or Democratic-leaning independents in our sample.

Full toplines can be accessed here.

PRESS CONTACTS

Alyssa Cass
alyssa@slingshotstrat.com
347-992-5006

Evan Roth Smith
evan@slingshotstrat.com
646-240-0096