Defining Harris: The Case For Positive Messaging

August 8, 2024

A new Blueprint poll shows that voters are ready for and receptive to informative, positive pro-Harris messaging and that the most effective communication approaches foreground Harris’s biography, record, and accomplishments, particularly her prosecutorial background, economic populism, and commitment to immigration reform. Voters are less persuaded by anti-Trump or anti-Republican messages, and more responsive to information that helps them fill in the blanks on their perceptions of Harris, which remain malleable.

This holds true for Democrats’ most powerful and effective rebuttals to anti-Harris attacks, where the best pushbacks highlight her record and accomplishments as a prosecutor and vice president rather than repeating traditional anti-Trump attacks. Independents are especially responsive to a Harris-forward messaging approach.

The results show that voters are eager for fresh messaging in this race–voter perceptions of Donald Trump are mostly solidified, so their appetite for Trump-centric content is limited. In fact, 71% of voters say their minds are made up about Trump and that there is absolutely nothing that could change their opinion about him. Just 57% say the same about Vice President Harris, with 20% saying either that they’re open to changing their minds about her or that they don’t really have any views on her and need to learn more.

To derive an effective definition of Harris on the trail, Blueprint used a “Mad Libs” style conjoint test, plugging in different permutations of Harris’s biographical facts, past accomplishments, and issue focuses to see what voters preferred the most.

Overall, Harris’s depth of accomplishment and personal biographical information are appealing to voters, including independents, and the campaign is correct to lean into her record as a prosecutor and her commitment to protecting freedoms like reproductive choice and policies like Social Security and Medicare.

In terms of an economic message, voters prefer one that is laser-focused on keeping the prices of goods and services low and those that champion policies to help working and middle-class families—like the message Harris has debuted at rallies in Georgia and Texas. The findings indicate that this is a message that will land with voters and that they will believe, with voters blaming Harris far less than President Biden for inflation, trusting her more than Biden on nearly every issue, and wanting to hear more about Harris and her policies than about Trump.

HARRIS CAN SUCCESSFULLY REBUT REPUBLICAN ATTACKS

Blueprint tested common Republican arguments against Vice President Harris, including attacks on her immigration record, the economy, her family, her legitimacy as a candidate, being a liberal from San Francisco, and the DEI attack.

The poll then asked voters about the convincingness of various rebuttals to these attacks, finding that the most effective responses are ones that immediately highlight Vice President Harris’ background and record of accomplishments rather than ones that call out Republican lies and use traditional anti-Trump messaging.

The effectiveness of the attacks and the rebuttals are scored using a metric that represents the combined appeal of the message with voters overall, with independent voters, and the intensity of that appeal (“very convincing”). Initially, voters were asked whether they found the attacks and rebuttals “very convincing”, “somewhat convincing”, “not very convincing”, or “not at all convincing”. The final score represents the total margin + independent margin + total “very convincing” + independent “very convincing.”

Republican attacks that focus on immigration and the economy score the best, while the DEI and family arguments score the worst.

Immigration Rebuttal

The most convincing rebuttal to the GOP attack that focuses on Harris’s role as the so-called “border czar” and blames her for increased illegal immigration is one that immediately pivots to Vice President Harris’ background as a child of immigrants and her understanding of the need for a better system. This rebuttal couches a more moderate policy argument for immigration reform and legal immigration in more liberal language about America as a nation of immigrants, while drawing a biographical thruline.

Another effective rebuttal, which pairs well with the above, highlights Harris’s credentials as a prosecutor, namely her work to take on transnational gangs and drug smugglers, and her support for the bipartisan legislation that takes border security seriously, and gives the Border Patrol more federal funding.

A combination of the top two testing rebuttals holds the key to how the Harris campaign can defuse Republicans’ number one attack and win over independents: immigration positioning that meets the electorate’s desire for border security and immigration reform, set against personal, empathetic language around immigrants themselves.

A rebuttal that points to Republican lies and credits a recent downturn in border crossings to Vice President Harris’s work to address the root causes of forced migration in Central America is significantly less effective.

Economic Rebuttal

On the economy, where Republicans have already begun attempting to tie Vice President Harris to inflation and rising cost of living under the Biden administration, the most convincing Democratic rebuttal is one that highlights Harris as a champion of working families and the middle class who has fought to cap insulin prices, cut junk fees, and lower costs for everyday Americans. This effective rebuttal also explains her accomplishments as California Attorney General taking on big corporate interests and standing up against companies that price gouge.

The least effective rebuttal tested is one that calls out Republican lies and insists that the data is more positive than people’s perceptions of the economy.

Legitimacy As a Candidate Rebuttal

When Republicans attack Harris’s legitimacy as a candidate, specifically by claiming she was chosen by party insiders and is undermining the will of 14 million primary voters, the most convincing rebuttal emphasizes that Kamala Harris is the vice president and that it is perfectly legitimate for the second-in-command to step in for the president.

The two top testing messages differ from the third in that they center Vice President Harris’s record rather than President Biden’s decision.

DEI Rebuttal

Vice President Harris’s most effective retort to the increasingly common but woefully ineffective “DEI hire” attack is to immediately point out Trump’s and the GOP’s desperate attempts to distract from Project 2025 and their efforts to divide Americans in order to give tax cuts to the rich.

Another rebuttal that scores not far behind is one that highlights Vice President Harris’s experience as Attorney General of California, a United States Senator, and Vice President and her accomplishments in every role.

The lowest-scoring rebuttal frames the DEI attack as racist and calls out Republican prejudice and bigotry.

Family Rebuttal

Republican attacks that go after Vice President Harris for not having biological children, framing her life choices as a pursuit of power over family values and her inability to relate to ordinary Americans, can most effectively be met with a counter-attack that calls out Trump’s three marriages and history of cheating. It pivots to Harris’s support of popular policies like protecting reproductive rights, while strongly asserting that policy outcomes for working parents are what makes a candidate pro-family.

This is the highest-scoring rebuttal we tested overall, and it is the only case where directly calling out Republicans and using anti-Trump attacks are more effective than pivoting to Vice President Harris’s record.

San Francisco Liberal Rebuttal

The most effective rebuttal against Republican arguments that attack Vice President Harris as a San Francisco liberal who supports radically liberal policies, pivots to her prosecutorial background and effective record as District Attorney and Attorney General of California, where she dedicated her career to upholding the law, putting criminals behind bars, and keeping Americans safe.

The rebuttal that calls out Republican fear-mongering and lies scores remarkably low.

DEFINING HARRIS: COMBINING BIOGRAPHY, ACCOMPLISHMENTS, AND ISSUES

In a statistical exercise called a conjoint analysis, similar to a “Mad Libs,” we tested various permutations of statements about Vice President Harris, swapping in biographic facts, past accomplishments, and campaign issue focuses to see what voters prefer the most and what an appealing definition of her will be on the trail.

By pulling in the most popular component of her personal background, the most popular political accomplishment, and the most popular issue position, the three top statements to define Vice President Harris are:

Kamala Harris was the Attorney General of California. She prosecuted sex traffickers and other men who abused women, putting them behind bars. She is running on protecting Social Security and Medicare.
Kamala Harris was a tough-on-crime prosecutor. She secured a $1.1 billion settlement for students who were taken advantage of by a predatory for-profit education company. She is running on keeping the prices of goods and services low.
Kamala Harris is a groundbreaking lawmaker and public servant. She sued BP for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and forced them to fund environmental restoration projects. She is running on maintaining protections for those with pre-existing health conditions.

Harris’s prosecutorial background provides the biggest boost out of the biographical facts we tested, and her prosecutorial accomplishments against criminals as well as big businesses lead her past political accomplishments. On issue positions, the presence of “protecting Social Security and Medicare,” gave any statement in which it was included a 15% boost. “Keeping the prices of goods and services low” earned a 9% boost, and “maintaining protections for those with pre-existing health conditions” earned a 6% boost.

VOTER ATTITUDES TOWARD HARRIS ARE LESS CALCIFIED THAN TOWARD TRUMP

The poll finds Harris even on overall favorability: 46% of voters view her favorably, and 46% view her unfavorably—a major improvement compared to how voters viewed her before Biden exited the race. Trump is viewed favorably by 43% of voters and unfavorably by 52%.

The poll also shows that voter attitudes about Harris are less calcified than their perception of Trump. We tested this by adding “extremely” favorable and “extremely” unfavorable options to our favorability grid (in addition to the typical “somewhat” and “very” options), as well as the options to choose “neutral” and “haven’t heard enough to say.”

64% of voters say they have either an “extremely” favorable (27%) or unfavorable (37%) opinion of Trump, showing how dug in many voters are. Just 3% say they are neutral on him, and only 1% say they haven’t heard enough to say.

On Harris, a smaller share of voters—53%—say they have either an “extremely” favorable (24%) or unfavorable (29%) opinion. 5% say they are neutral on her, and 3% say they haven’t heard enough to say. That means that about one in 10 voters are completely dug-in on their views of Trump but not of Harris.

In a similar finding, we asked voters about the extent to which they’ve already made up their minds about the candidates. Of Trump, 71% say: “My mind is made up; there is absolutely nothing that could change my opinion about” him. Much fewer, 57%, say the same of Harris. Meanwhile, 20% of voters say either that they’re “open to changing [their] mind” on Harris (12%) or that they “don’t really have any views” on her and “need to learn more” (8%). Just 7% of voters say they’re open to changing their mind on Trump, and only 5% say they don’t really have any views on him and need to learn more.

Additionally, the poll tested Democratic party messages related to Biden stepping down and Harris coming into the spotlight. The message that tested the best with both overall voters and, notably, those who didn’t vote in 2020, focused on a breath of fresh air:

“Isn’t it time for someone new? For the last four decades, the Clintons, Bushes, Trumps, and Bidens have been running everything. Now, we have an opportunity to give someone new a chance to shake things up. Kamala Harris doesn’t come from a wealthy political family. She worked her way to the top by fighting for middle-class families. It’s time for a breath of fresh air.”

Overall, there is significant room for voters to change—or even just form—their opinions of Harris; this is much less true of Trump.

VOTERS BLAME HARRIS LESS THAN BIDEN FOR RISING PRICES; TRUST HER MORE ON ALL ISSUES TESTED

The poll presented voters with a list of aspects of the Biden administration and asked them who—Biden or Harris—they believe is more responsible for each.

The policies most attributed to Biden are providing military aid to Ukraine (50% say Biden is “more” or “entirely” responsible, 5% say Harris), the withdrawal from Afghanistan (51% Biden, 7% Harris), providing military aid to Israel (48% Biden, 7% Harris), student debt cancellation (49% Biden, 10% Harris), capping the cost of insulin (41% Biden, 12% Harris), and rising prices on goods and services (35% Biden, 7% Harris).

The policies most attributed to Harris include policies to increase access to abortion (18% Biden, 25% Harris), the reduction in crime (22% Biden, 14% Harris), passing the Respect for Marriage Act (24% Biden, 15% Harris), the reduction in border crossings (27% Biden, 17% Harris), and passing the CHIPS and Science Act (25% Biden, 11% Harris).

While rising prices on goods and services is net +28 Biden (35% Biden, 5% Harris), lowering prices on goods and services is net +16 Biden (27% Biden, 11% Harris), suggesting that Harris gets less blame for prices rising and relatively more credit for reducing them.

When asked who they trust more—Biden or Harris—on a range of issues, Harris is more trusted on all, with her strongest being reproductive rights (72% to 28%), protecting LGBT rights (70% to 30%), reducing racial tension in the country (65% to 35%), having good policies on police and crime (62% to 38%) reducing gun violence (61% to 39%), ensuring a better future (61% to 39%), immigration (60% to 40%), and keeping rent and housing costs affordable (60% to 40%).

Harris leads Biden by 14 points on bringing down the prices on goods and services and by 12 points on securing the border.

While there is no issue where more voters trust Biden more than Harris, her weakest issues are protecting Social Security (+2), preventing war and conflict (+3), creating jobs for everyone who needs one (+4), reducing the deficit (+4), and lowering gas prices (+4).

ABOUT THE POLL

Blueprint surveyed an online sample of 2,245 voters on July 28 and July 29, weighted to education, gender, race, survey engagement, and 2020 election results. The survey was conducted in English, and its margin of error is ±2.4 percentage points. Full toplines can be found here and crosstabs upon request.

PRESS CONTACTS

Alyssa Cass
alyssa@slingshotstrat.com
347-992-5006

Evan Roth Smith
evan@slingshotstrat.com
646-240-0096