Campaign Like It’s 2008: Economic Messaging Notes Harris Can Hit

Policy promises that are general and sweeping—like reaffirming a commitment to protecting Social Security and Medicare, protecting and expanding healthcare access, and ensuring housing is affordable—are more persuasive to voters than ones that are more detailed and data-heavy.

September 4, 2024

As Vice President Kamala Harris hones her message on the economy, new Blueprint polling shows that former President Barack Obama’s economic policies are more compelling to voters than President Joe Biden’s. Specifically, the survey demonstrates that Vice President Harris can persuade broad swaths of voters by linking her economic priorities to Obama’s policy playbook, including expanding access to healthcare and passing tax and economic policies that benefit the working and middle-class rather than the megarich.

These findings are consistent with and build on previous Blueprint polls. In April, a Blueprint survey revealed that, more than a decade after Mitt Romney’s infamous “47 percent” gaffe, which Obama used as a central attack against Romney to paint the Republican presidential candidate as a rich guy whose policies help billionaires and large corporations at the expense of average Americans,is still appealing to both base Democrats and persuadable swing voters. In July, a Blueprint poll found that voters do not assign responsibility to Harris for most of Biden’s record during his term as president, including inflation—suggesting that Harris has a clean slate when crafting her economic message. Just 23% of voters associate Harris with inflation, according to the poll conducted on July 21 and July 22.

Now, our latest data demonstrates that Harris has an opportunity to successfully decouple the perceptions of her economic approach from Biden’s, which a large share of the electorate believe has caused inflation and higher prices.

Additionally, the survey data indicates that voters approve more of Harris messaging that relies on general language around policy aims, rather than detailed policy specifics. Policy promises that are general and sweeping—like reaffirming a commitment to protecting Social Security and Medicare, protecting and expanding healthcare access, and ensuring housing is affordable—are more persuasive to voters than ones that are more detailed and data-heavy.

Obama’s Economic Policies Are More Popular than Biden’s, Trump’s, and Harris’s

When asked about Obama’s economic policies, 53% of voters approve of them and 39% disapprove—a net approval of +14. Both Biden’s and Trump’s policies are seen in identically negative lights: 45% of voters approve of Biden’s economic policies, while 49% disapprove— a net approval of -4. An identical 45% of voters approve of Trump’s economic policies, while 49% disapprove—a net approval of -4.

Harris’ economic policies are viewed more favorably than Biden’s or Trump’s, but less favorably than Obama’s; 46% of voters approve of her proposed economic policies, while 42% disapprove—a net approval of +4.

Every voter demographic tested approves of Obama’s policies more than Biden’s, with the largest approval margins among voters ages 18-44 (Obama +29), 2020 nonvoters (Obama +27), and independent voters (Obama +25). Right now, Obama policies are also seen more favorably than Harris’s economic proposals by all demographics, with the largest advantages among voters ages 18-44 (Obama +16 over Harris), Biden 2020 voters (Obama +14 over Harris), and both college-educated and white voters (both Obama +13 over Harris).

When asked if Obama’s economic policies were too liberal, too conservative, or just about right, 40% of voters say too liberal, 37% select just about right, and 11% say too conservative.

For Biden, 42% believe his economic policies were too liberal, 36% think just about right, and 11% say too conservative.

For Trump, 9% think his economic policies are too liberal; 34% believe they are just about right, and 43% believe they are too conservative.

Black voters: For Obama’s policies, 28% say too liberal, 52% just about right, and 6% too conservative. For Biden, 18% say too liberal, 56% just about right, and 9% too conservative. For Trump, 19% say too liberal, 12% just about right, and 45% too conservative. For Harris, 21% say too liberal, 58% just about right, and 3% too conservative.

Latino voters: For Obama’s policies, 35% say too liberal, 38% just about right, and 12% too conservative. For Biden, 39% say too liberal, 31% just about right, and 11% too conservative. For Trump, 15% say too liberal, 31% just about right, and 31% too conservative. For Harris, 35% say too liberal, 41% just about right, and 8% too conservative.

18-44 year old voters: For Obama’s policies, 26% say too liberal, 37% just about right, and 18% too conservative. For Biden, 29% say too liberal, 33% just about right, and 17% too conservative. For Trump, 10% say too liberal, 28% just about right, and 41% too conservative. For Harris, 31% say too liberal, 38% just about right, and 12% too conservative.

Independent voters: For Obama’s policies, 38% say too liberal, 33% just about right, and 10% too conservative. For Biden, 41% say too liberal, 28% just about right, and 10% too conservative. For Trump, 6% say too liberal, 32% just about right, and 41% too conservative. For Harris, 38% say too liberal, 31% just about right, and 7% too conservative.

For Harris, more voters are worried that her proposed economic policies are too liberal than are worried that they are too conservative; 40% view her proposed economic policies as too liberal; 39% say just about right, and 6% say too conservative. Out of all four politicians, Obama’s policies are perceived as the best for both voters and their families as well as the economy overall.

Voters view Biden’s policies on net as bad for their family (35% good, 44% bad, -9) and feel similarly about Harris’s proposed policies (37% good, 41% bad, -4). Voters believe Trump’s economic policies were narrowly good for their family (42% good, 41% bad, +1). Obama’s policies are viewed as best for their family’s finances (42% good, 34% bad, +8).

Biden’s policies are regarded as bad for the economy (36% good, 44% bad, -8), while Harris’s are viewed neutrally (40% good, 40% bad, +0). Trump’s policies are seen as narrowly good for the economy (42% good, 41% bad, +1), while Obama’s policies were viewed most favorably (45% good, 35% bad, +10).

Black voters view Biden’s policies as good for their family (58% good, 17% bad, +41) and feel similarly about Harris’s proposed policies (57% good, 14% bad, +43). They believe Trump’s economic policies were bad for their family (16% good, 64% bad, -48). Obama’s policies are viewed most favorably (63% good, 13% bad, +50).

Latino voters view Biden’s policies as narrowly bad for their family (31% good, 34% bad, -3) and feel similarly about Harris’s proposed policies (39% good, 30% bad, +9). They believe Trump’s economic policies were slightly bad for their family (37% good, 34% bad, +3). Obama’s policies are viewed most favorably (40% good, 26% bad, +14).

18-44 year old voters view Biden’s policies as slightly bad for their family (31% good, 38% bad, -7) and feel similarly about Harris’s proposed policies (35% good, 34% bad, +1). They believe Trump’s economic policies were slightly bad for their family (36% good, 39% bad, -3). Obama’s policies are viewed most favorably (42% good, 28% bad, +14).

Independent voters view Biden’s policies as bad for their family (29% good, 45% bad, -16) and feel similarly about Harris’s proposed policies (33% good, 37% bad, -4). They believe Trump’s economic policies were slightly good for their family (38% good, 37% bad, +1). Obama’s policies are viewed most favorably (40% good, 35% bad, +5).

This data builds on an April Blueprint poll, which found that Trump’s achilles heel is his support for cutting taxes for the rich and his slashing of programs that benefit working- and middle-class Americans. This was the playbook that Obama used to beat Romney in 2012, and this polling shows that Vice President Harris has an opportunity to wield it again.

Broad Policies Are More Popular Than Detailed Ones

Our polling shows that general policy proposals consistently outperform specific ones. We measured opinion on 24 policies—half of which were specific policies, such as “provide free tuition at community colleges and public universities for families earning under $125,000” and half of which were broad, such as “protect and strengthen healthcare access for all Americans”—and tested them against one other, in a method known as “MaxDiff.” The broad messages were preferred 52% of the time on average, compared to 47% for specific policies. Notably, each of the top five most frequently selected platform components are broad.

Specifically, “protect Social Security and Medicare” is preferred by voters 77% of the time, “ensure housing is affordable” at 69%, “Protect and strengthen healthcare access for all Americans” at 69%, “raise wages and cut taxes for working American families” at 61%, and “invest in public education” at 57%. More concrete policies performed far worse: “cancel $10,000 in student debt for families earning less than $125,000 a year” is preferred just 38% of the time. Similarly, “invest $1 trillion in clean energy and a clean economy,” “create a $10,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers,” and “invest $1 trillion in infrastructure over 10 years” are preferred less frequently at 43%, 42%, and 41% of the time, respectively.

When testing policies that are on the same topic, but are presented with different levels of specificity, voters prefer broader explanations of policies. For example, the general promise to “protect and strengthen healthcare access for all Americans” is selected 69% of the time, while specific policies like “Medicare for All” and “the public option” are chosen 45% and 44% of the time, respectively. The commitment to “protect Social Security” is selected in 77% of tests, while “eliminating the cap on Social Security payroll taxes for high earners” is chosen 52% of the time. In another, the more sweeping statement “ensure housing is affordable” is chosen 69% of the time, while the specific “cap rent increases at 5% per year” is selected 50% of the time.

ABOUT THE POLL

This poll of 1,025 voters was taken on Aug. 15 and Aug. 16. This survey was weighted to education, gender, race, survey engagement, and 2020 election results; it was conducted in English, and has a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points. Full toplines are available here; full crosstabs are available upon request.

PRESS CONTACTS

Alyssa Cass
alyssa@slingshotstrat.com
347-992-5006

Evan Roth Smith
evan@slingshotstrat.com
646-240-0096