Change Election, Kitchen Table Mandate: Voters Signal Clear Priorities for Democrats in Trump Era

In a change election where voters sought disruption of the status quo, being labeled as “establishment” proved more damaging than being associated with elites.

November 25, 2024

KEY FINDINGS:KEY FINDINGS

Voters Want Kitchen-Table Democrats: Inflation and prices rank the highest by far on what voters think should be a top priority for the Democratic Party moving forward, followed by immigration, with democracy, abortion and healthcare rounding out the top five.
Issues vs. Character: Trump was seen as campaigning with an emphasis on issues more than character by a 26-point margin among all voters. Harris was seen as emphasizing character more than issues by a 17-point margin.
Dissatisfaction Drove Decisions: Among all voters, dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration (33%) slightly edged out support for Trump’s specific policy proposals (32%) as the primary motivation for their vote. This gap widened significantly among swing voters who broke for Trump, with 49% citing Biden-Harris dissatisfaction compared to 39% motivated by Trump’s proposals.
Who’s on the side of the establishment, the elites: Voters see Republicans as representing the elites by a 13-point margin over Democrats. However, voters associate Democrats with the establishment by a 9-point margin—suggesting that Democrats are increasingly seen as defenders of a broken system, which presents a greater liability than being the party of the wealthy or powerful.

Blueprint’s latest data paints the picture of an electorate focused intensely on kitchen-table economics, split on their perceptions of who and what each party represents, and sending clear signals about the issues they want to be prioritized under a Trump presidency.

Voters overwhelmingly want Democrats to focus on inflation and prices moving forward (46%), with a majority (52%) of swing voters saying Democrats need to make this their focus. Immigration is the second most important issue for Democrats to focus on (24%), with particular importance (31%) among the swing voters Democrats lost to Trump. A distant second tier of desired issues focus on democracy (17%), abortion (17%), and healthcare (16%) is driven primarily by partisan Democrats who want to see their party remain committed to these core issues that have become a matter of identity for the Democratic Party.

As Elon Musk takes center stage in a Trump presidency, voters have different views of who represents “elites” and which party represents the “establishment”; in the election, the latter was significantly more disliked and determinative of voter choice than the former. Voters say that Republicans represent the elites by a 13-point margin while Democrats represent the establishment by a 9-point margin. This holds true with swing voters as well, who say Republicans represent the elite by a 15-point margin while Democrats are associated with the establishment by a 9-point margin.

Not only was anti-establishment messaging more determinative than siding with elites like Elon Musk, but Trump and Musk’s clear focus on government spending and the deficit resonates across party lines. With the creation of D.O.G.E., Trump capitalizes on his anti-establishment perception and voters’ frustrations with the deficit–which is identified with government waste and inflation, as shown in previous Blueprint polling. 71% of all voters favor the government reducing the deficit, even if it means reducing spending rather than continuing to run a deficit so we can keep spending the same as it is now (which has just 12% support).

What Do Voters Want From The Democratic Party?

Respondents were asked to choose up to two issues they want to see the Democratic Party focus on moving forward.

Inflation and prices emerge as voters’ clear priority for Democratic focus (46%), particularly among swing voters (52%), followed by immigration (24%). Democracy (17%), abortion (17%), and healthcare (16%) form a second tier of priorities, mainly among base Democrats.

Campaign Emphasis: Character vs. Issues

Vice President Harris was seen as emphasizing character more than issues on the trail by a 17-point margin (50% character vs. 31% issues). Donald Trump was seen as emphasizing issues over character by a 26-point margin (54% issues vs. 28% character).

This gap was even more pronounced among swing voters who broke for Trump, who saw Trump focusing on issues by a 56-point margin (73% issues vs. 17% character).

The Elite vs. Establishment Divide

The distinction between being seen as the party of elites versus the party of the establishment emerged as a crucial factor in this election cycle. Our polling reveals a striking paradox: while voters view Republicans as aligned with elites by a 13-point margin, they simultaneously see Democrats as representing the establishment by a 9-point margin. This perception is even more pronounced among swing voters, who associate Republicans with elites by a 15-point margin while linking Democrats to the establishment by 9 points.

In a change election where voters sought disruption of the status quo, being labeled as “establishment” proved more damaging than being associated with elites. This dynamic created a particular challenge for Democrats, who struggled against the headwinds of anti-incumbency sentiment.

ABOUT THE POLL

Blueprint surveyed 3,262 national and swing state 2024 voters fielded over web panels on Nov. 6 and Nov. 7 and weighted to education, age, gender, race, and 2020/2024 election results. The margin of error is +/- 2.1.

Full topline available here.

Definition of swing voters: Our definition of swing voters includes those who are undecided in the presidential race, have changed their voting preference since 2020 (voting Democrat in one election and Republican in the other), or are independents who either indicate they split their votes between Democrats and Republicans, or who hold either favorable or unfavorable views of both Trump and Harris. We collected 3,623 total voters in our targeted swing states and 757 swing voters.

PRESS CONTACTS

Alyssa Cass
alyssa@slingshotstrat.com
347-992-5006

Evan Roth Smith
evan@slingshotstrat.com
646-240-0096