Swing State Opportunity: Room to Grow With Non-College Women

September 19, 2024

NEED TO KNOW:

Price concerns dominate: 75% of non-college women in swing states say the most important economic improvement they want to see is lower prices on goods, gas, and services. They overwhelmingly support a price-gouging crackdown on groceries (74% support) and reducing prescription drug prices for seniors (90% support).
Harris’s favorability presents an opportunity: While Biden has a -13 net favorability among swing state non-college women, Harris’s net favorability is +1, suggesting an opportunity for Harris to reset with this key demographic. She has more room to grow than Biden: Harris’s “extremely unfavorable” rating with non-college women in swing states is 33%, while Biden’s is 38%. Trump’s net favorability is 0. Not only that, but Harris has a 7-point trust advantage on abortion.
Skepticism on immigration and border security: Swing state non-college women are particularly doubtful about Harris’s ability to handle immigration. 44% believe she won’t even try to deploy additional border patrol agents, and 53% support decreasing immigration levels. In contrast, Trump holds an 11-point advantage over Harris on trust regarding border issues.
The double-edged sword: By focusing on lowering prices, a priority non-college women already associate with Harris, and emphasizing the bipartisan border security bill, Harris can both strengthen support on a key issue and address concerns about her immigration agenda.
Campaign like the 1990s: Healthcare, deficits, and crime offer Harris opportunities to make inroads among swing state non-college women. These voters are concerned about high deficits, fentanyl trafficking, and access to healthcare. The most popular policies with non-college women in swing states are reducing prescription drug prices for seniors (net support +88), increasing sentences for fentanyl trafficking (+83) and reducing the federal deficit (+68).

Blueprint’s latest deep dive into swing state voters reveals that non-college women across the Rust Belt and Sun Belt could be the key to winning this election. Our polling shows that the views of swing-state non-college women are more closely aligned with the overall views of swing-state voters than any other group, showing that winning over this demographic could mean winning the seven coveted swing states. Non-college women will make up roughly a third of the electorate nationally in 2024.

Representing the middle ground between swing-state non-college men, who skew further right, and swing-state college-educated women, who skew further left, swing-state non-college women are a firmly moderate voting bloc. For instance, Harris’s favorability with swing state college-educated women is +35, and with non-college men in these states, it is -20. With swing state non-college women, Harris’s favorability is teetering at +1, suggesting room to grow.

Swing state non-college women support reproductive freedoms (52% pro-choice, 35% pro-life), trust Harris more on abortion by a 7-point margin, and believe that Harris will succeed in passing a law to restore Roe. On the other hand, our polling shows that swing-state non-college women’s concerns about immigration and inflation are deeply entrenched, and they trust Donald Trump more on these highly salient issues. Not only that, but they demonstrate a notable skepticism toward government and policy proposals, particularly ones from Vice President Kamala Harris.

Overall, non-college women across the seven swing states are moderate and express disdain for Donald Trump and a need to know more about Kamala Harris. Our data shows that an agenda that is appealing to them includes protecting reproductive freedoms, a bold economic plan to take on inflation, a common-sense approach to cutting the deficit, and a moderate approach to illegal immigration and the border. By winning over this key demographic, the Harris campaign can win over swing-state voters at large because the views of swing-state non-college women are so tightly linked to the overall views of swing-state voters.

“With an intrinsic allegiance to Harris on reproductive freedom, but a high-level of concern about inflation and immigration, swing state non-college women could hold the key for how Harris can win across the board,” said Blueprint lead pollster Evan Roth Smith. “While they are skeptical towards many of Harris’s plans, this group still has a strong desire to get to know her better. This offers an opportunity for the campaign to go all-in on a prices-focused economic message, double down on the commitment to passing a bipartisan border deal, and hold Trump accountable for his anti-freedom stance on abortion and reproductive rights. In doing so, the campaign would be running on a message that will also appeal to swing voters as a whole.”

KEY FINDINGS

Harris Offers Democrats a Chance to Reset

Kamala Harris’s ascendence to the top of the ticket presents an opportunity for Democrats to improve their standing with non-college women in swing states, where Joe Biden has struggled: Harris holds a +1 net favorability compared to Biden’s -13 net favorability among these voters.

Trump’s favorability among non-college women sits at 0, while he faces a -35 net favorability among college women.

Harris’s “extremely unfavorable” rating among non-college women is 33%, notably better than Biden’s 38% and Trump’s 38%, allowing her to define herself with these voters.

Crucially, 40% of non-college women in swing states believe that Harris represents a breath of fresh air, while 45% believe she represents more of the same. Harris narrowly leads on our “right type of change” question among non-college women, 47% to 46%.

Kamala Harris favorability: +1 net favorability. 49% favorability with non-college women, 31% have an extremely favorable opinion, 10% very favorable, and 8% somewhat favorable. On the contrary, 4% were somewhat unfavorable, 11% very unfavorable, and 33% were extremely unfavorable. 3% haven’t heard of her or didn’t have an opinion.
Donald Trump favorability: 0 net favorability. 49% favorability with non-college women—33% with an extremely favorable opinion, 8% very favorable, and 8% somewhat favorable. In contrast, 3% are somewhat unfavorable, 8% very unfavorable, and 38% extremely unfavorable. Only 2% haven’t heard of him or had no opinion.
Joe Biden favorability: -13 net approval. 42% of non-college women view Biden favorably, with 20% viewing Biden extremely favorably, 13% very favorably, and 9% somewhat favorably. On the other hand, 6% are somewhat unfavorable, 11% very unfavorable, and 38% are extremely unfavorable. 3% hadn’t heard of him or didn’t have an opinion.

Non-College Women Closely Reflect the Overall Swing State Electorate

Non-college women in swing states align very closely with the views of the overall electorate, making them an excellent target for broad-based messaging.

This group serves as a middle-ground between more polarized groups like non-college men or college-educated women.

Non-college women are closely aligned with the overall electorate in their placement of Harris. About 33% of non-college women find her ideologically similar to themselves, closely mirroring the 31% in the overall electorate. However, 42% of non-college women view Harris as “much more liberal” than themselves, which is again close to 45% for the overall electorate.

Non-college women are similarly divided in their views on Trump, with 31% seeing him as ideologically similar, compared to 29% of the overall electorate. 40% of non-college women view Trump as “much more conservative,” in line with the overall electorate’s 40%.

Non-college women place themselves ideologically in a middle ground compared to Trump, closely reflecting the overall electorate. They are less ideologically aligned with him than non-college men but more favorable toward him than college-educated women.

Trust on Key Issues: Socially Harris, Economically Trump

Non-college women in swing states tend to trust Harris more on social issues like abortion and healthcare but lean toward Trump on economic issues like government spending and border security.

Harris’s 7-point advantage on abortion is a huge opportunity for her to press her advantage. Despite non-college women’s skepticism about Harris’s plans, 45% of non-college swing state women believe that Harris will succeed at restoring Roe v. Wade, compared to just 29% who say she will not even try.

In comparison, college-educated women in swing states trust Harris on abortion by a whopping 36-point margin.

While Donald Trump holds a 1-point advantage on crime, two highly popular policies with non-college swing state women illustrate how Vice President Harris can gain ground back. 87% of non-college swing state women support increasing sentences for fentanyl trafficking, and 84% support increased prosecution of drug traffickers—two policies where Harris has leaned on her chops as a prosecutor to demonstrate her strength on crime.

Addressing their concerns about the economy, immigration, and crime while continuing to emphasize healthcare and education could be key to winning over this critical demographic.

On Economic Concerns: Price Sensitivity and Fiscal Responsibility Dominate

An overwhelming 75% of non-college women in swing states say the most important economic improvement they want to see is lower prices on everyday essentials, including goods, gas, and services.

41% say Harris is most focused on lower prices, 40% say Trump is most focused on lower prices when it comes to their economic priorities.

Non-college women in swing states are strongly supportive of a crackdown on price gouging (64% in favor, 19% opposed), believe the government should play a better, not a bigger, role in society (58% to 23%), and believe corporate exploitation is a problem of bad actors, not systemic (43% to 38%).

Additionally, on “would benefit me” questions, they prioritize policies that directly address economic hardships, such as banning excessive grocery prices (net +59%), supporting small businesses (+55%), and reducing prescription drug prices for seniors (+42%). These findings illustrate that non-college women in swing states are not opposed to government intervention, but they seek targeted, practical solutions that directly benefit them without increasing the government’s overall footprint.

The high popularity of reducing the federal deficit (+68% approval, +53% “would benefit someone like me”) and the belief that the government should play a better, not a bigger, role in society demonstrates a desire for more efficient government and fiscal responsibility. Additionally:

41% of non-college women believe the government does too much, and 46% think the government should do less, rather than expanding its responsibilities.
Regarding reducing the deficit, 41% prefer cutting spending, with only 5% supporting tax cuts to achieve this goal. 62% favor deficit reduction through spending cuts rather than running a deficit to avoid reducing spending.
41% of non-college women in swing states believe that Harris supports too much government spending, 33% say she supports the right amount, 5% believe she supports too little spending. 14% believe that Trump supports too little spending, 24% believe he supports too much spending and 34% believe he supports the right amount of spending.

A Skepticism of Harris’s Policy Proposals

When presented with Harris’s policy proposals, non-college women in swing states were more likely to say she wouldn’t even try to enact her proposals than the overall swing state electorate and other groups like non-college men, college-educated women, and college-educated men.

The policies non-college women in swing states are most skeptical that Harris will even try include sending additional border patrol agents to the border (44% won’t even try), bringing back the bipartisan immigration bill (43%), and investing in the U.S. military (43%).

Their skepticism on immigration policy is especially notable, given how important the issue is to non-college women in swing states and how popular aspects of the bipartisan immigration bill are to this group. For instance:

75% of non-college women support increasing border patrol agents and 66% support spending on border patrol technology.
53% of non-college women in swing states believe that immigration levels should be decreased, 15% of non-college women believe immigration should be increased, while 16% think it should be kept at the same levels.
Still, non-college women trust Trump more than Harris by an 11-point margin on the border (52% trust Trump, 41% trust Harris).

On the other hand, the policies that the highest share of non-college women in swing states believe Harris will try and succeed at are making the child tax credit permanent (49% will try and succeed), protecting voting rights (47%), prosecuting companies engaged in price gouging (45%), tax cuts for middle-income families (45%) and restoring Roe v. Wade (45%).

By focusing on lowering prices, a priority non-college women already associate with Harris, and emphasizing the bipartisan border security bill, Harris can both strengthen support on a key issue and address concerns about her immigration agenda.

PRESS CONTACTS

Alyssa Cass
alyssa@slingshotstrat.com
347-992-5006

Evan Roth Smith
evan@slingshotstrat.com
646-240-0096