How to Win a Swing Voter in Seven Days

So what will it be that pushes these voters over the edge for Harris? It is a walk-and-chew-gum approach that takes advantage of Harris’s growing momentum on the economy, abortion, and representing the right kind of change and hits Trump’s perceived extremism and hostility towards swing and moderate voters who are not already part of his base.

October 29, 2024

There is one week until Election Day, and all that lies between Kamala Harris and the Oval Office are a few hundred thousand swing voters in seven swing states. Who are these swing voters, what do they need to hear, and how can Harris seal the deal?

Blueprint’s latest polling looks at swing voters (undecideds, flip-floppers, ticket-splitters, double haters, and double lovers) in swing states (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, and WI) and what makes them tick. We found that despite being surrounded by Trump-supporting family and community members, swing state swing voters find themselves more aligned with Harris on the high-salience issues of prices and abortion and see Trump as more extreme and exclusionary. Put simply, the decisive voters in the final stretch of this election are left-leaning people in right-leaning environments.

Swing state swing voters are overwhelmingly pro-choice (+24 points), and Harris has notably seized a key advantage over Trump on their pocketbook concerns. 67% of these voters prioritize lower prices over other economic issues, and 42% say this issue is Harris’s main focus, compared to 37% for Trump. Furthermore, Harris’s price-gouging policies are overwhelmingly popular, even among conservative-leaning voters.

A majority of these swing voters say the people in their lives are Trump-supporting (35%) or politically split (22%), but they see Trump as the more extreme candidate by a 10-point margin and see the Democratic Party as more accepting of moderate and swing voters by a 9-point margin. Not only that, but Harris has a 10-point advantage with these voters on the traits, “Will represent all Americans, not just their own voters” and “The ability to put country ahead of personal interests.”

And in a change election, Kamala Harris holds a narrow but crucial 2-point edge on representing “the right kind of change” to swing state swing voters.

Partisan Lean of Swing State Swing Voters And Their Communities

The swing state swing voters in our study can best be described as Democratic-leaning people in Republican-leaning communities. 20% of our swing voters lean Republican in their past voting patterns, 34% split evenly, and 25% lean Democratic.

Swing voters in swing states believe that Trump (35%) is more extreme than Harris (23%) and believe that Democrats are more accepting of swing voters and moderate voters (26%) than Republicans (17%), suggesting that Harris’s campaign strategy of welcoming Republicans like Liz Cheney to share a stage with her is influencing voters.

When we asked swing voters in swing states who people in their life support, 35% say most or all people in their lives support Trump, 22% even, and 27% Harris, suggesting that these voters are a part of communities that are more conservative than they are. 31% think Trump is favored to win, and 27% think Harris is.

Which Candidate Represents The Right Kind of Change

By a narrow margin, swing state voters believe Harris (53% of all voters, 51% of swing voters) represents the right type of change in this election.

Harris Leads on Prices

When it comes to the economy, swing voters’ top concern is lower prices (67%). Swing voters view Harris (42%) as more focused on the issue than Trump (37%)—a notable difference from perceptions of Biden, who consistently lagged Trump on this metric.

Voters are supportive of Harris’s anti-price gouging proposal, with 57% of all swing state voters and 53% of swing state swing voters in favor, even when presented with an argument against the price gouging proposal saying that “Attacking businesses that create jobs and grow our economy and imposing Soviet-style price controls will only make inflation worse.” Harris’s proposal even has 53% support among swing state independents and 47% support among Republicans.

Character Counts: Harris Leads on Presidential Capability

We tested a number of non-policy attributes that a president should have. Across these attributes, Harris was favored on nearly every one among swing voters in swing states.

Harris’s strongest leads are: “will be able to run for re-election” (+37), “has integrity” (+16), “will pursue bipartisan solutions” (+15), “has the stamina necessary to be president” (+12), “will be able to be president for four years” (+12) and “has the ability to put country ahead of personal interests” (+10).

The areas where she lagged are the “experience necessary to make tough decisions” (-17) and “too old to be president” (-39).

What Voters Want To Hear

Swing voters are most interested in hearing more about Harris’s policies (32%), followed by Trump’s policies (18%). Learning more about Harris’s biography (5%) or Trump’s biography (3%) is less interesting to these voters.

When swing state swing voters are asked what they want to see from Harris to help decide on how they’ll vote, 36% say they want more information about her issue positions, and 43% say there is nothing more they want to help them decide. When asked the same question about Trump, 31% say policy plans, and 49% say nothing else.

Cognitive Ability

More voters in swing states, including swing voters, view Kamala Harris as having the mental and cognitive capacity to be president than say the same about Trump. 57% of all voters in swing states say she has the capacity, and 34% say she does not. For Trump, all swing state voters are evenly split, with 46% saying he has the capacity and 46% saying he doesn’t.

Among swing state swing voters, 50% say Harris has the mental and cognitive capacity to be president, compared with 32% who say she does not. Swing voters are split on Trump’s capacity to be president, with 41% saying he does have the capacity and 39% saying he does not.

When we tested Harris’s claim from that Trump is “too exhausted” against Trump’s claim that Harris doesn’t have the capacity to be president, we find that swing voters are more likely to agree with Harris that Trump is too exhausted (38%), rather than agreeing with Trump that Harris is not cognitively prepared (31%).

Breaking With Biden

Swing state swing voters prefer to see policy distance between Harris and President Biden. The highest shares of swing voters most want to see Harris break from Biden on immigration (44% say reverse Biden, 28% build on his policies, 5% continue his policies), inflation (41% reverse, 30% build, and 7% continue), and national security (31% reverse, 31% build, and 10% continue).

The areas where the most voters want to see Harris continue Biden’s policies are abortion (15% continue, 31% build, 22% reverse), healthcare (13% reverse, 31% build, and 24% continue), and jobs (11% reverse, 35% build, and 27% continue).

Harris should look to chart a new path on immigration and inflation, but many Biden-era healthcare policies are popular.

ABOUT THE POLL

The first MaxDiff comes from a national survey of 3,623 registered voters in swing states. It was conducted from Oct. 23 to Oct. 27.

This survey was weighted to education, gender, race, survey engagement, and 2020 election results; it was conducted in English, and had a margin of error of ±1.9 percentage points. Full toplines are available here; full crosstabs are available upon request.

Definition of swing voters: Our definition of swing voters includes those who are undecided in the presidential race, have changed their voting preference since 2020 (voting Democrat in one election and Republican in the other), or are independents who either indicate they split their votes between Democrats and Republicans, or who hold either favorable or unfavorable views of both Trump and Harris. We collected 3,623 total voters in our targeted swing states and 757 swing voters.

Rust Belt and Sun Belt: Our Sunbelt and South sample includes: GA, AZ, NV, NC. Our Rust belt sample includes: MI, PA, WI

PRESS CONTACTS

Alyssa Cass
alyssa@slingshotstrat.com
347-992-5006

Evan Roth Smith
evan@slingshotstrat.com
646-240-0096