The Obama-Trump-Harris Voter: This Is Democracy Manifest

In the final five days, Harris has the edge on the two candidates’ marquee economic message: by a six-point margin swing state voters in swing state view tariffs as “another word for a national sales tax,” and they are also receptive to Harris’s price gouging message, with strong support for laws against excessive grocery prices.

October 31, 2024

THE FINAL STRETCH FIVE:

Harris leads Trump by seven points in favorability with swing voters in swing states, while enjoying the halo effect of Obama’s enduring popularity (+16)—a stark contrast to Biden’s -45 rating with these crucial voters.
Nearly half (48%) of swing state swing voters plan to split their ticket, with another 28% still undecided—suggesting a massive persuadable audience in the campaign’s final days who evaluate candidates individually rather than by party.
Voters see personal benefit in Harris’s key policies: particularly cracking down on excessive grocery prices (+57 net benefit) and lowering prescription drug costs (+41).
Swing voters have rejected the most extreme attacks on Harris: Only low percentages believe she supports defunding police (27%), banning private health insurance (19%), or Medicare for All (28%).
While fiscally conservative and safety-minded, swing voters in swing states align with Harris on key social issues; they’re pro-choice by a significant 26-point margin (55% to 29%).

The path to victory in 2024 runs straight through a critical bloc of voters that helped elect Barack Obama in 2012 before swinging to Donald Trump in 2016, according to Blueprint’s latest polling of swing state voters. Swing state swing voters are Obama-Trump voters, who backed Obama over Romney by 25 points before supporting Trump over Clinton by 24 points, and exemplify the volatile electoral landscape that could determine the next president.

On that metric, the survey reveals positive signs for Vice President Kamala Harris—as leading surrogate Barack Obama still enjoys strong favorability (+16) with swing state swing voters, and Harris holds a narrow 7-point favorability edge over Trump. However, President Biden struggles with a -45 favorability rating among these crucial voters, maintaining the need to emphasize Harris’s difference from Biden and representation of change.

The poll paints a picture of swing state swing voters deeply conflicted about their choices and intent on splitting their ticket. A striking 48% of swing voters in swing states say they plan to split their ticket between Democrats and Republicans on Tuesday, with another 28% still undecided. 67% say they normally split their tickets between Republicans and Democrats—suggesting an electorate that makes voting decisions based on the attributes of individual candidates rather than voting in accordance with pure party loyalty.

Harris’s economic plans have stuck with these crucial voters, with 63% associating her with raising taxes on the wealthy, 59% associating her with her $10,000 homebuyer tax credit proposal, and 52% associating her with protecting Medicare and Social Security. More importantly, voters see Harris’s policies as personally beneficial, specifically a law against excessive grocery prices (+57 net benefit), reducing the federal deficit (+48), and reducing prescription drug prices (+41).

Swing voters in swing states reject some of the most extreme characterizations of Harris’s agenda. Only small minorities of swing voters believe she supports policies like banning private health insurance (19%), defunding the police (27%), or Medicare for All (28%).

When it comes to Trump, swing state swing voters have a much clearer picture of his agenda and remain skeptical of some Democratic attacks on it. They overwhelmingly associate him with his signature policies—building a border wall (82%), deporting undocumented immigrants (78%), and imposing a 20% tariff on all imports (61%). However, Trump’s efforts to moderate his image on abortion and social issues appear to have been persuasive: only 34% believe he will implement a national 6-week abortion ban, and just 32% think he supports banning IVF.

Do You Think Harris Supports This Policy?

We asked swing voters in swing states what policies they believed that Harris and Trump supported. The policies that the highest share of swing voters associate with Harris are raising taxes on the wealthy (63% supports), a $10,000 homebuyer tax credit (59%), codifying Roe v Wade (56%), protecting Medicare and Social Security (52%), and Medicare drug price negotiations (49%).

Voters largely do not associate Harris with some of the most extreme policies, such as banning private health insurance (19%), defunding the police (27%), abolishing the electoral college (20%), Medicare for All (28%), a ban on fracking (29%), reparations (30%) and allowing abortion until birth (32%).

Do You Think Trump Supports This Policy?

Swing voters are clearer on what Trump supports, though some of the policies that Democrats have tried to tie to him in the Project 2025 have not broken through with swing state swing voters. These swing voters are not highly engaged, and many express a lack of knowledge about some of Trump’s policies.

The policies swing voters most associate with Trump are a wall on the border with Mexico (82%), deporting undocumented immigrants (78%), a 20% tariff on all imports (61%), deporting legal immigrants (59%) and freeing the January 6th prisoners (55%).

However, Trump’s efforts to moderate from his past association with extreme abortion positions and the positions of Project 2025 have largely succeeded. Only 18% of swing voters believe he would ban pornography (27% he will not) and 32% believe he will support banning IVF (25% doesn’t support). 34% believe that Trump will pass a national 6-week abortion ban (20% he will not) and 36% he will create a database tracking abortion seekers (25% he will not).

The impact that Trump will have on the deficit has not broken through with swing voters either. Only 30% believe he will expand the deficit to pay for tax cuts, while 19% believe he will not.

Top-Testing Policies

The top-testing policies among swing state swing voters focus on expanding healthcare coverage for seniors, securing the border from drugs, and reducing the federal deficit. Policies aimed at promoting homeownership and young voter priorities such as marijuana legalization were less popular.

The top-testing policies (above 60% net support) are increasing fentanyl trafficking sentences (+71), increasing the prosecution of border drug traffickers (+70), reducing prescription drug prices (+69), reducing the deficit (+66), and Medicare coverage for home care (+64).

The policies that are less popular (all of the election promises were net positive) are tax credits for housing construction (+14), building 3 million new homes (+17), legalizing marijuana (+27), a $50,000 tax credit for new small businesses (+28) and a tax credit for first time home buyers (+28).

Policies That Help People Like Me

For the policies tested, we also asked voters whether these policies would benefit someone like them. Here, we find that swing voters most feel they will benefit from laws on price gouging, deficit reduction, and prescription drug prices.

The tax on tips, while popular, is not something most swing voters believe would benefit them personally. They feel similarly about the small business tax credit, homebuyer tax credits, and other housing related policies and the child tax credit. While these policies are popular, voters may not connect them to their personal lives or feel that they would not be eligible.

The policies that, on net, swing voters think would benefit them the most are a law against excessive grocery prices (+57), reducing the federal deficit (+48), reducing prescription drug prices (+41), support for small food businesses (+40), hiring more police officers (+40), expanding Medicare to cover home health aides (+34), and more border security agents (+33).

The policies that swing voters feel would benefit them the least are expanding the child tax credit (-18), tax credits for housing construction (-17), a $50,000 tax credit for small businesses (-13), eliminating taxes on tips (-10), legalizing marijuana (-4), and building 3 million new homes (+2).

Swing State Swing Voters, Pro-Choice But Skeptical Of Immigration And Government Spending

We asked a series of questions aimed at understanding how swing voters feel about economic, criminal justice, and immigration questions. The findings affirm the picture of Obama-Trump voters as cross-pressured moderates who align with Republicans on issues like crime and immigration, but with Democrats on issues like abortion, and are fiscally cautious on government spending as well as new tariffs.

On criminal justice, swing voters are far more likely to believe the criminal justice system is “not tough enough” (55%), rather than “too tough” (11%). Swing voters are also skeptical of immigration, with 53% saying they want to see immigration decreased, 13% increased, and 18% kept at its current level. On these issues, Republican policies are closer swing voters.

However, on abortion choice, Democrats have a clear advantage, with 55% of swing voters identifying as pro-choice and 29% as pro-life.

When it comes to fiscal issues and government spending, voters lean towards fiscal conservatism; 57% of swing voters in swing states say the government does too many things, 23% the government should do more. 69% believe the government should reduce the deficit even if it means reducing spending, while only 9% support running a deficit to keep spending where it is now. They support reducing the deficit by cutting spending (48%) rather than increasing taxes (4%).

These swing voters want the government to play a better, not a bigger, role in the economy (68%) rather than increase spending to deliver higher quality services (15%). 42% of swing voters prefer a healthcare system based on private insurance, while 26% prefer a government-run system.

Swing voters are narrowly divided on tariffs, but 39% believe tariffs are another word for a national sales tax, while 33% support tariffs to keep jobs in the United States.

ABOUT THE POLL

The first MaxDiff comes from a national survey of 3,623 registered voters in swing states. It was conducted from Oct. 23 to Oct. 27.

This survey was weighted to education, gender, race, survey engagement, and 2020 election results; it was conducted in English, and had a margin of error of ±1.9 percentage points. Full toplines are available here; full crosstabs are available upon request.

Definition of swing voters: Our definition of swing voters includes those who are undecided in the presidential race, have changed their voting preference since 2020 (voting Democrat in one election and Republican in the other), or are independents who either indicate they split their votes between Democrats and Republicans, or who hold either favorable or unfavorable views of both Trump and Harris. We collected 3,623 total voters in our targeted swing states and 757 swing voters.

Rust Belt and Sun Belt: Our Sunbelt and South sample includes: GA, AZ, NV, NC. Our Rust belt sample includes: MI, PA, WI

PRESS CONTACTS

Alyssa Cass
alyssa@slingshotstrat.com
347-992-5006

Evan Roth Smith
evan@slingshotstrat.com
646-240-0096