John Kelly Vs. The Economy: Plurality Of Swing State Voters Say Hitler Comparison Is Good Reason To Vote Against Trump, Policy Still Better

While the media focuses on Trump’s extremism and the comments of his former chief-of-staff, Harris can focus on the economic contrast.

October 28, 2024

Kamala Harris, in the last 8 days, must showcase she can walk and chew gum at the same time—hammering a closing case that elevates the revelations John Kelly has made about Trump while flexing her own policy bona fides on high-salience issues like the economy, immigration, and Social Security and Medicare.

The poll—of swing state voters and a particular focus on swing voters in those states—shows that recent bombshell comments by former Trump Chief of Staff John Kelly have broken through. The recording and the media attention it has garnered have stuck with voters, and the campaign has been able to use the moment to meet the press where they are on what they’re covering.

However, Vice President Harris cannot win with a message that is only about Trump’s threat, as our swing state poll indicates that it is even more important for Harris to highlight her economic policies and Democratic home runs on Social Security and Medicare while letting the media focus on the danger of another Trump presidency.

Definition of swing voters: Our definition of swing voters includes those who are undecided in the presidential race, have changed their voting preference since 2020 (voting Democrat in one election and Republican in the other), or are independents who either indicate they split their votes between Democrats and Republicans, or who hold either favorable or unfavorable views of both Trump and Harris. We collected 3,623 total voters in our targeted swing states and 757 swing voters.

Rust Belt and Sun Belt: Our Sunbelt and South sample includes: GA, AZ, NV, NC. Our Rust belt sample includes: MI, PA, WI

HOW JOHN KELLY COMMENTS HAVE BEEN HEARD & ARE STICKING

John Kelly’s remarks didn’t just make headlines—they’re sticking: 57% of all swing state voters have heard about Kelly’s comments regarding Trump’s admiration for dictators, with 47% considering it a good reason to vote against Trump—36% of whom say it is a “very good reason to vote against Trump.”

41% of swing state swing voters say it is a good reason to vote against Trump versus 29% who say it is a bad reason.
47% of all swing state voters say it’s a good reason to vote against Trump, 33% of all voters say it is a bad reason to vote against Trump, and 20% don’t know.
Among Rust Belt voters, 47% say it’s a good reason to vote against Trump and 32% say a bad reason, among Sun Belt voters, 46% say it’s a good reason to vote against Trump, 34% say it’s a bad reason.

MESSAGE TEST: JOHN KELLY GOOD, BUT PRICES AND SOCIAL SECURITY BETTER

Harris’s winning closing message with undecided and swing state voters? Real talk on addressing prices, protecting Social Security and Medicare, taxing the wealthiest Americans, taking on big corporations, and emphasizing the buy-in her campaign has from business leaders like Mark Cuban.

While the final elements of our recommendation may sound contradictory, they are not. By emphasizing business leaders’ support for her campaign, Harris can more effectively make the case that she will take on bad actors, rather than simply all corporations (while assuaging concerns driven by Trump ads that she is too far left). Swing state swing voters are not universally against corporations; they oppose corporations that abuse their power and don’t pay their fair share.

While the media focuses on Trump’s extremism and the comments of his former chief-of-staff, Harris’s paid media—as well as Harris’s proactive case for herself—can focus on the economic contrast.

We tested 21 contrast messages against Trump and found that the most persuasive for our swing state swing voters oversample are economic messages that show a commitment to reducing prices and protecting Social Security and messages that emphasize her support from business leaders.

Messages that did not work well with these swing voters focus on an immigration contrast, explicitly contrasting with Biden, climate messaging, a YIMBY message, and a message highlighting Trump’s “enemy of the people” comments.

ABOUT THE POLL

The first MaxDiff comes from a national survey of 3,623 registered voters in swing states. It was conducted from Oct. 23 to Oct. 27.

This survey was weighted to education, gender, race, survey engagement, and 2020 election results; it was conducted in English, and had a margin of error of ±1.9 percentage points. Full toplines are available here; full crosstabs are available upon request.

Definition of swing voters: Our definition of swing voters includes those who are undecided in the presidential race, have changed their voting preference since 2020 (voting Democrat in one election and Republican in the other), or are independents who either indicate they split their votes between Democrats and Republicans, or who hold either favorable or unfavorable views of both Trump and Harris. We collected 3,623 total voters in our targeted swing states and 757 swing voters.

Rust Belt and Sun Belt: Our Sunbelt and South sample includes: GA, AZ, NV, NC. Our Rust belt sample includes: MI, PA, WI

PRESS CONTACTS

Alyssa Cass
alyssa@slingshotstrat.com
347-992-5006

Evan Roth Smith
evan@slingshotstrat.com
646-240-0096