September 23, 2024

SWING STATE CHEAT SHEET

1. Swing state voters are ideologically eclectic: They hold conservative views on immigration and crime but are pro-choice and favor government action to control corporate excesses, particularly on prices. They reward pragmatic populist positions rather than strict ideological consistency.
2. Swing state voters favor policies that punish corporate bad actors but are skeptical of government overreach and sweeping systemic change rhetoric. They don’t think in terms of the size of government or companies, but judge by effectiveness and actions.
3. Harris’s opportunity lies in balancing fiscal conservatism with populist price-focused economic policies: While swing state voters tend to be deficit hawks, policies like cracking down on price gouging are widely popular. 

Swing state voters represent a mosaic of political views, rewarding candidates who embrace pragmatic populist policies that directly address their daily concerns. A Democratic recipe for success in this electoral environment moderates on immigration and crime and embraces popular pro-choice and anti-price gouging positions while foregrounding targeted interventions that swing state voters believe might actually improve their lives over sweeping systemic change rhetoric. 

Ideological Heterodoxy in the Swing States

Swing states swing for a reason: their voters hold heterodox political views, blending traditionally conservative positions on issues like immigration and crime with liberal views on reproductive rights and corporate regulation. 

• 55% of swing state voters say immigration should be decreased (including 49% of independents, 35% of Democrats, and 58% of non-college voters). Just 19% say it should be kept at its present level and 14% say it should be increased. 
• 57% of swing state voters say our criminal justice system is not tough enough (including 44% of Democrats and 43% of independents). 21% say it’s about right, and just 10% say it’s too tough. 

• 52% of swing state voters identify as pro-choice, including 46% of independents. 39% identify as pro-life, including 34% of independents. 
• When asked to choose between two approaches to lowering the cost of living, 64% of swing state voters favor cracking down on price gouging by harshly penalizing big businesses that unfairly jack up prices and coordinate to increase costs, while only 23% say “Soviet-style price controls will only make inflation worse” and that the government cut regulations and reduce spending rather than attacking businesses.

Deficit Hawkishness and Government Skepticism 

Swing state voters tend towards skepticism of government, preference for market solutions, and deficit hawkishness. They want the government to “play a better role, not a bigger one.”

• 51% of swing state voters (including 54% of independents) say the “government does too many things” that should be left to individuals and businesses, while 36% say “government should do more” to solve our country’s problems (including just 26% of independents). Even younger swing state voters and 2020 nonvoters are evenly split on this metric.
• Similarly, swing state voters are more likely to support relying on free markets more to solve problems (48%) than on government (28%). However, younger swing state voters are split on markets, while nonwhite swing state voters are more likely to prefer relying on government over markets. 
• 69% of swing state voters think we should reduce the deficit even if it means reducing spending, while just 12% believe we should continue to run a deficit so we can keep spending the same as it is now (including only 22% of swing state Democrats and 7% of independents). When it comes to how we should go about addressing the deficit, 46% of swing state voters say cut spending (8% say increase taxes, 20% say we should do both, and 10% say we should do neither). 
• Asked about government spending, 62% of swing state voters (including a plurality of swing state Democrats, 52% of younger voters, 61% of independents, 77% of seniors, and 72% of college-educated men) believe that “The government needs to play a better role—not a bigger role—in healthcare and the economy. We need the government to set the rules of the road and prosecute bad actors, but we don’t need more spending.” Only 25% believe that “The government needs to play a much bigger role in healthcare and the economy. We need to increase spending to get higher quality services. The US is the richest country on earth and can afford to spend more.”

Pragmatic Economic Populism

Cost of living is swing state voters’ top economic concern, with 73% saying lower prices on goods, gas, and services are what they’d most like to see improved in the economy (42% believe that is Harris’s top priority, 41% believe it is Trump’s). 

• When asked to choose between two approaches to lowering the cost of living, 64% of swing state voters favor cracking down on price gouging by harshly penalizing big businesses that unfairly jack up prices and coordinate to increase costs, particularly on groceries and housing. This includes 58% of independents, 72% of both Black and Latino voters, 64% of non-college voters, 53% of 2020 non-voters, and 47% of 2020 Trump voters. Only 23% say “Soviet-style price controls will only make inflation worse” and that the government should cut regulations and reduce spending rather than attacking businesses.
• When given a binary choice on their views of corporations, 51% of swing state voters believe “The problem in America is that while most corporations are creating jobs, contributing to our economy, and playing by the rules, some are not. That’s just not right, and we need to take action when that is the case.” This includes 45% of independents, and is heavily driven by the strong preferences of older, college-educated, and male voters. Only 35% believe “Most corporations exploit their workers, pollute the environment, and rip off customers. We need to completely overhaul the economy and how business works in America in order to protect Americans.” This latter view is more common among younger and nonwhite swing state voters. 

Taken together, these findings suggest that swing state voters overall favor government policies that punish corporate bad actors in the interest of providing tangible benefits to ordinary people, but are more skeptical of rhetoric focused on broad systemic change. On the economy, Harris has the opportunity to thread the needle by presenting a message that focuses on lowering prices, addressing fiscal concerns, and promoting targeted government action against corporations that exploit consumers. 

In a point-counterpoint message test, we showed respondents Harris policy messages paired with Trump responses attacking them, and asked which exchanges provided the strongest reason to vote for Harris. Swing state voters consistently find Harris’s messaging focused on reducing prices, expanding healthcare access, and protecting Social Security and Medicare most persuasive. This includes an anti-price gouging message that the Trump counterpoint went so far as to define as “socialism” that will cause “bread lines.” 

ABOUT THE POLL

This poll of 1,086 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin was taken from August 31 to September 2, 2024. This survey was weighted to education, gender, race, survey engagement, and 2020 election results; it was conducted in English, and had a margin of error of ±3.7 percentage points.

Full toplines are available here; full crosstabs are available upon request. 

PRESS CONTACTS

Alyssa Cass
alyssa@slingshotstrat.com
347-992-5006

Evan Roth Smith
evan@slingshotstrat.com
646-240-0096

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